Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nikolay P. Pilnik
Author-Email: npilnik@gmail.com
Author-Workplace-Name: Higher School of Economics National Research University, Moscow 119049, Russia; Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia
Author-Name: Malika F. Shaikhutdinova
Author-Email: shaykhutdinova.m@gmail.com
Author-Workplace-Name: Higher School of Economics National Research University, Moscow 119049, Russia
Title: Modeling of the Balance of Payments State in Russia
Abstract: The model proposed in this article allows analyzing and forecasting the dynamics of Russian foreign economic activity on the base of the balance of payments. The model includes several econometric equations of all the main components of the payments balance, which represent the actual values with a high level of accuracy. Despite some problems related to the transformation of raw statistical data due to a variety of changes in reporting standards, that were described in the paper, the constructed model can predict monthly dynamics of the main components of the Russian payments balance in the short term from 12 to 18 months. To demonstrate the model’s performance, the authors employed three different scenarios driven by various combinations of exogenous variables, such as the prices of resources, the growth rates of the Russian main trading partners as well as the country’s current economic policy in basic, optimistic and pessimistic states.
Classification-JEL: F47
Keywords: foreign economic activity, balance of payments, exports, imports, current account, financial account, gold and foreign exchange reserves
Journal: Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal
Pages: 84-101
Issue: 5
Year: 2017
Month: October
File-URL: http://www.nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2017/5/articles/fm_2017_5__07.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:170507:p:84-101