Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anton I. Votinov
Author-Email: avotinov@nifi.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow 101000, Russia; Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia
Author-Name: Ivan P. Stankevich
Author-Email: istankevich@hse.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow 101000, Russia
Title: VAR Approach to Efficiency Evaluation of Fiscal Economy Encouragement Measures
Abstract: The paper presents a vector autoregression-based approach to evaluation fiscal measures. Using both structural and Bayesian VAR models, the authors estimate fiscal multipliers of overall government expenditure and its components: national defense, national economy, education and social policy expenditures. The results are checked for robustness using different lag length and model specifications and different sets of hyperparameters in Bayesian VAR case. Regarding overall expenditures these results are quite stable across specifications and correspond well with results obtained in previous research in this field. National defense and social policy multipliers are shown to be negative (in contrast to previous research on Russian data), when national economy and education expenditures multipliers are positive. The article also presents some policy implications.
Classification-JEL: H50
Keywords: fiscal multipliers, public spending, VAR models, Bayesian approach
Journal: Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal
Pages: 64-74
Issue: 6
Year: 2017
Month: December
File-URL: http://www.nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2017/6/articles/fm_2017_6__05.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:170605:p:64-74