Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Valery V. Kizilov
Author-Email: vkizilov@nifi.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russian Federation
Title: Some Macroeconomic Consequences of COVID-19: Specifics of the 2020 World Economic Crisis
Abstract: In 2020, almost all large countries experienced a decline in GDP and other indicators of economic activity. This trend followed the news about the COVID-19 pandemic and had several features typical for cyclical economic crises. At the starting point, both demand and supply factors were negatively
affected. This paper looks into data on GDP, retail sales and foreign trade dynamics in the first nine months of 2020, and analyzes the difference between developed and developing countries. Specific phenomena are observed: Germany and its small neighbors had relatively mild crises; developed countries had
their trade balances deteriorating; the trade between the USA and China revived; and American deficit has been growing since April 2020. Some hypotheses to explain the above are offered. For instance, the German economy might have been able to adapt swiftly due to greater freedom of entrepreneurship than in France and Italy and due to the lowest debt ratios among G7 countries. The trade balances of developed countries deteriorated, possibly, because of a decline in production as a result of anti-COVID lockdowns, with consumption encouraged by stimulating policy measures.
Classification-JEL: E32, E65, F14, F44
Keywords: economic crisis, economic cycle, supply shock, foreign trade, public debt, investment climate, economic freedom, COVID-19
Journal: Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal
Pages: 9-27
Issue: 1
Year: 2021
Month: February
DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2021-1-9-27
File-URL: https://www.finjournal-nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2021/1/statii/01_1_2021_v13.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf 
Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:210101:p:9-27