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Financial Journal Vol.17 No.5 2025

CONTENTS

M.S. Makushkin
Determinants of the Yield on Russian Sovereign Bonds with Floating Coupons
, p. 8-25
Abstract
In recent years, amid the tightening of the monetary policy, floating-rate sovereign bonds (OFZ-PK) have come to play a significant role in the Russian bond market. In conditions of high interest rate volatility, they appear to be an attractive instrument for investors because they reduce the interest rate risk. This makes the analysis of OFZ-PK pricing particularly relevant. This paper uses theoretical models and actual OFZ market data to demonstrate the factors influencing the yield of OFZ-PK bonds. First, it systematizes the main types of OFZ-PK bonds available on the market and discusses the specifics of floating coupon calculation. Then, a theoretical model for evaluating OFZ-PK bonds is presented. It is shown that due to the arithmetic averaging of the floating rate inherent in most OFZ-PK, investors in such securities lose interest capitalization and become exposed to additional interest rate volatility risk. Empirical analysis of the OFZ market data revealed that OFZ-PK bonds trade at a premium to OFZ bonds with a fixed income (OFZ-PD). Most of the premium is explained by the absence of interest capitalization and interest rate volatility. It is shown that the new OFZ-PK bonds with coupons based on the RUONIA forward rate are more suitable for modeling and, in theory, should be comparable in terms of yield to OFZ-PD bonds. However, due to the limited availability of interest rate derivatives in the current Russian market, convergence between OFZ-PK and OFZ-PD yields is not always achievable. The findings of this study may be useful to investors in OFZ-PK bonds and may also be taken into account by issuers when designing the terms for placing floating-rate bonds.
Keywords: bonds, interest rate, OFZ-PK, interest rate volatility
JEL: G12, G13, E43
For citation: Makushkin M.S. (2025). Determinants of the Yield on Russian Sovereign Bonds with Floating Coupons. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 8–25 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-8-25.
© Makushkin M.S., 2025

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D.A. Petrova
Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries
,  p. 26-39
Abstract
This study analyzes international experience in measuring fiscal policy uncertainty and provides quantitative estimates of government spending uncertainty and tax policy uncertainty for Russia from April 2011 to June 2024. The analysis of empirical studies showed that the main periods of fiscal policy uncertainty in the international context are periods of political instability and elections, fiscal and budget debates, large budget deficits, economic crises, and external shocks such as the Gulf wars and the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. Google Trends searches on “fiscal policy” and time-varying volatility of government expenditures calculated on the basis of stochastic volatility models are used to estimate fiscal policy uncertainty on Russian data. Composite indices of fiscal, budget and tax policies uncertainty based on internet queries on Google were obtained using principal component analysis. Stochastic volatility models were estimated for the fiscal instrument on a quarterly basis. The results of the empirical analysis made identified key periods of fiscal policy uncertainty for Russia during the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2024: the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and the geopolitical risks in 2022.
Keywords: fiscal policy uncertainty, government spending policy uncertainty, search queries, internet data, government spending, stochastic volatility model
JEL: E62, D80, C11
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Petrova D.A. (2025). Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 26–39 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-26-39.
© Petrova D.A., 2025

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L.V. Barabanova, S.V. Arzhenovskiy, L.V. Antosik, K.A. Tumanyants
Does the Shadow Sector Affect the Profitability of Organizations: A Regional Perspective
,  p. 40-58
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the lack of works devoted to its topic and based on Russian data. The purpose is to estimate the impact of the shadow economy on the profitability of legally operating companies in Russia, taking into account regional heterogeneity. The information base consisted of annual data from Rosstat and the Federal Treasury for the period from 2014 to 2022 by region. For econometric modeling, the authors used models with composite error on panel data, with spatial effects, as well as a dynamic model with a lagging dependent variable of the profitability level of the regional economy, calculated by Rosstat. The control variables are the autonomy coefficient, the level of regional subsidies, real monetary income and the unemployment rate. The results of econometric modeling empirically prove that an increase in the share of the shadow sector in gross regional product leads to a decrease in the profitability of sales/services and, consequently, to a decrease in the efficiency of the official economic activities of enterprises. The results obtained a) expand the set of factors that can explain fluctuations in the profitability of enterprises in official statistics; b) allow to conclude that the benefits of legal entrepreneurial activity do not yet compensate for the advantages of unofficial business in Russia. In this regard, the state should continue its efforts to change the ratio between them in favor of observed entrepreneurial activity.
Keywords: shadow economy, Russian regions, profitability, panel data, regression analysis
JEL: C23, E26, G32, R15
Acknowledgments: the authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments which helped to improve the text of the article.
Note: the views expressed herein are solely those of the authors. The content and results of this research should not be considered or referred to in any publications as the Bank of Russia’s official position, official policy, or decisions. All errors in this article, if any, are the responsibility of the authors.
For citation: Barabanova L.V., Arzhenovskiy S.V., Antosik L.V., Tumanyants K.A. (2025). Does the Shadow Sector Affect the Profitability of Organisations: A Regional Perspective. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 40–58 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-40-58.
© Barabanova L.V., Arzhenovskiy S.V., Antosik L.V., Tumanyants K.A., 2025

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M.V. Sigova
Socially Responsible Investment and Social Inclusion of Russian Companies
,  p. 59-75
Abstract
Social risks, intensifying due to high income differentiation of the population and uneven territorial development of Russia, increase the relevance of research aimed at finding ways to involve companies in solving social problems in their regions of operation, clarifying theoretical provisions and developing methodological tools for social investment. The article proposes, for the first time, an approach to assessing the social inclusiveness/exclusiveness of companies. The purpose of the work is to justify an approach to measuring the social orientation of investments as a trend in the development of Russian companies. This study confirms the need to address the problem of aligning two groups of benefits when implementing socially responsible investments: corporate benefits, which characterize the company’s exclusiveness, and social benefits, which characterize its inclusiveness and arise from the use of its financial resources to implement social development projects in its region of operation. The article shows that the meaning of the term “socially responsible investment” is not clearly defined and quantitative studies are limited by the availability of data for assessment. The possibilities of using data on securities issuance and companies’ investments in socially oriented projects are considered. A company’s position in the ESG rating is used as an indirect indicator of socially responsible investments. An approach to assessing a company’s social inclusiveness, which occurs when investments are directed toward developing the region of operation and its social exclusiveness, corresponding to its orientation toward using the financial resources to solve its own social problems, is proposed. Testing of the approach showed the heterogeneity and instability in assessments and determined the direction of further research, i.e. identifying industry and regional characteristics of social inclusiveness/exclusiveness.
Keywords: socially responsible investment, company’s region of operation, investment focus, social inclusion, social exclusion
JEL: G32, Q01
For citation: Sigova M.V. (2025). Socially Responsible Investment and Social Inclusion of Russian Companies. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 59–75 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-59-75.
© Sigova M.V., 2025

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E.A. Kopalkina, M.G. Arustamyan, M.M. Minasyan, S.A. Avetisyan, R.Y. Mangasaryan
Current State of the Green Finance Market in Russia and Its Prospects
, p. 76-92
Abstract
This article presents a meta-analysis of the Russian green finance market based on open sources and regulatory documents. Since 2018, green instruments have been actively introduced in the Russian financial market. After the imposition of sanctions against Russia and the escalation of geopolitical tensions, the their issuance has significantly decreased. Nevertheless, green financial instruments in Russia continue to function, demonstrating certain adaptive tendencies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current state of the Russian green finance market and to identify the prospects for its further development under the sanctions pressure. The paper summarizes the trends in the issuance of sustainable bonds in 2023–2024, identifies the types of green financial instruments commonly used in Russian practice, and considers potential directions for their diversification. The authors came to the following conclusions: 1) Russia has significant potential for the development of green finance at both the corporate and governmental levels; 2) Due to the increase in the key interest rate and other factors related to the complicated geopolitical situation, the volume of sustainable bond issuance in 2024 reached a record low; 3) Despite this, certain positive trends can be observed — the authorities are planning new projects and initiatives that could revitalize the sustainable bond market, and new green financial instruments continue to emerge; 4) Further activation of the market requires institutionalizing ESG culture among participants and increasing their competencies in green finance. Government authorities should popularize green financial instruments, in particular by reducing the level of transaction costs for issuers when issuing sustainable bonds and developing additional incentives for participants in this market.
Keywords: ESG, green financial instruments, sustainable development, green bonds, green mortgage, blue bonds
JEL: F34, H63, Q01
For citation: Kopalkina E. A., Arustamyan M. G. and al. (2025). Current State of the Green Finance Market in Russia and Its Prospects. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 76–92 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-76-92.
© Kopalkina E.A., Arustamyan M.G., Minasyan M.M., Avetisyan S.A., Mangasaryan R.Y., 2025

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P.O. Shchukina, P.A. Lavrinenko, A.G. Mirzoyan, A.A. Galich
The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indices and Dividend Payments of Russian
Stock Market Companies: A Comparative Analysis
, p. 93-109
Abstract
The article is devoted to a comparative analysis of various approaches to the construction of corporate governance quality indices and their relationship with dividend payments of companies in the Russian stock market. The main emphasis is placed on the comparison of two approaches to assessing the quality of corporate governance: the first is based on compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia’s Corporate Governance Code, while the second is based on the analysis of objective characteristics of the board of directors. The data used are characteristics of 28 public companies in the Russian stock market for the period from 2010 to 2024. Two methods were used to construct indices: equal weights and the principal component method. As a result of constructing regression models for the period up to 2022, a positive correlation between the quality of corporate governance and dividend payments was revealed. Using the random forest model, it was demonstrated that the highest explanatory power was shown by the index that included both objective characteristics of the board of directors and variables reflecting compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia’s Corporate Governance Code, while the lowest was shown by the index that took into account only the characteristics of the board of directors with equal weights. Nevertheless, a structural shift is observed in 2023 and 2024: the constructed indices have ceased to be significant predictors of dividend payments.
Keywords: corporate governance, index, dividend payments, board of directors
JEL: G34, G35
For citation: Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A. (2025). The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indices and Dividend Payments of Russian Stock Market Companies: A Comparative Analysis. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 93–109 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-93-109.
© Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A., 2025

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L.V. Polezharova, D.M. Volkov
Tax Incentives for Scientific and Technological Development: Experience of Foreign Countries and Russia
, p. 110-125
Abstract
The priority directions of the state policy of the Russian Federation on the development of investment activities in the country in projects related to the achievement of technological sovereignty and structural adaptation of the economy makes necessary effective use of fiscal incentive instruments for the most knowledge-intensive and promising sectors of the economy. The purpose of the article is to propose conceptual approaches to improving Russia’s tax policy in order to increase the efficiency of R&D. The fiscal instruments and approaches to R&D stimulation successfully used in economically and technologically highly developed foreign countries, which are to be considered in Russia, are highlighted. The indicators of the amount of implied tax subsidies for R&D expenditures, as well as indicators of the country’s gross R&D expenditures in relation to its GDP, were analyzed by countries for the period 2010–2023, and an empirical assessment of the degree and level of actual use of fiscal incentives for R&D was carried out. A theoretical assessment of the reasons for the insufficient degree of their use was also carried out. The ways of improving Russia’s tax policy to increase the effectiveness of R&D tax incentives and demand for them in order to achieve technological sovereignty of the country’s economy are proposed.
Keywords: tax incentives for R&D, tax incentives, R&D expenditure, tax policy in the field of R&D support
JEL: F23, H25, H26
For citation: Polezharova L.V., Volkov D.M. (2025). Tax Incentives for Scientific and Technological Development: Experience of Foreign Countries and Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 110–125 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-110-125.
© Polezharova L.V., Volkov D.M., 2025

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I.A. Mayburov
Fiscal Incentives for Innovation in Foreign Countries: An Analytical Review of Positive and Negative Effects
, p. 126-142
Abstract
The technological aspect of innovation stimulation is becoming central for Russia, since the introduction of new technologies is one of the most important factors affecting the economy’s ability to remain sustainable in the context of sanctions restrictions and cut-off from the transfer of breakthrough technologies. The task of the state to improve the efficiency of its fiscal policy with regard to stimulating innovation is highly relevant. In the course of the review we tried to answer the following questions: What impact do the main instruments of fiscal policy have on innovation stimulation? Which effects of innovation incentives are positive and which are negative, and what recommendations can increase the efficiency of fiscal policy? The purpose of this article was to identify the effects generated by the main instruments of innovation stimulation (tax incentives and budget subsidies) and to develop recommendations for the formation of effective fiscal policy. For the theoretical review the protocol of multistage selection of high-quality articles was used. The principle of incentive efficiency was substantiated and its decomposition into constituent effects was performed. Twelve incentive effects were identified. In the process of fiscal stimulation, the manifestation of six positive effects is revealed: the signal effect and the effects of knowledge spillover, productivity, high-tech companies, and market failure correction. Four negative effects are identified: crowding out, substitution, small and excessive incentives, and policy uncertainty. Two mixed effects are also identified: imitation and scale. The author's recommendations to strengthen the positive and mixed effects and neutralize the negative effects of innovation incentives are presented.
Keywords: fiscal stimulation, budget subsidies, tax breaks, incentive effects, innovation, R&D, efficiency
JEL: H21, H25
Funding: The article is based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Acknowledgments: The author would like to thank the reviewers for their suggestions and comments, which provided valuable scientific guidance for this study.
For citation: Mayburov I.A. (2025). Fiscal Incentives for Innovation in Foreign Countries: An Analytical Review of Positive and Negative Effects. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 126–142 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-126-142.
© Mayburov I.A., 2025

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Financial Journal Vol.17 No.4 2025

CONTENTS

I.A. Balyuk, M.A. Balyuk
Russia’s Participation in International Financial Institutions under External Sanctions: Problems and Prospects
, p. 8-25
Abstract
The article analyzes Russia's participation in the functioning of international financial institutions (IFIs) under external sanctions. The purpose of this study is to systematize IFIs with Russian membership, identify promising IFIs taking into account the transformation of Russia’s foreign economic relations, and develop recommendations for Russia’s further interaction with various IFIs in the context of tightening external sanctions. The research methodology includes qualitative and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis involves systematizing IFIs with Russian membership according to functional and geographical criteria. Quantitative analysis aims to compare various IFIs with Russian membership implementing fundamental economic and statistical indicators. Based on the results and specifics of their activities, a classification of IFIs was developed and the main characteristics of IFIs were defined. It was found that not all IFIs in which Russia participates are important from the point of view of the new paradigm of our country’s international financial relations. It is advisable for Russia to maintain its membership in most global and regional IFIs, provided that participation does not involve significant financial costs and does not imply the mandatory fulfillment of any requirements that contradict the country’s national interests. One of the key findings of the research is that within traditional IFIs it is extremely important for Russia to intensify cooperation with friendly countries (primarily with BRICS+) in order to strengthen its role and influence in the international arena.
Keywords: Russia, international financial institutions, regime of external sanctions, IMF, World Bank, BRICS+
JEL: F33, F36, G15, G21
For citation: Balyuk I.A., Balyuk M.A. (2025). Russia’s Participation in International Financial Institutions under External Sanctions: Problems and Prospects. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 8–25 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-8-25.
© Balyuk I.A., Balyuk M.A., 2025

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E. V. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, E.D. Dzhaokhadze
Wholesale CBDC Payment Systems and the Potential of the Digital Ruble in Cross-border Settlements
, p. 26-43
Abstract
A new payment infrastructure based on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can improve the efficiency of cross-border payments. Currently, the main focus of research in this area is on creating and testing the advantages of multi-CBDC platforms: preliminary results indicate the potential for making international payments faster, less expensive and more accessible. To build an effective cross-border payment infrastructure based on digital currencies, it is important that monetary authorities consider international payments, among other uses, when designing CBDCs. As one of the main elements of digital currency design, the IMF recommends that central banks consider access and communication issues, measures to ensure sufficient liquidity of foreign financial intermediaries, and measures to control possible risks such as the effect of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, capital flight and currency substitution. The economic community expects the digital ruble to be launched into circulation in 2026. It will be mainly used for domestic payments, but the Bank of Russia is also discussing the possibility of using it for cross-border payments. It is therefore important to discuss the conformity of the current design of the digital ruble with existing international standards and recommendations for the design of the CBDC with cross-border use in mind. Despite the fact that the current design of the digital ruble is primarily focused on the Russian financial market, it is relatively easy to reconfigure it for cross-border settlements.
Keywords: central bank digital currency, retail CBDC, wholesale CBDC, digital ruble, central bank, cross-border settlements
JEL: Е40, Е44, E51, F29, F33, F39
Funding: This article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation:
Sinelnikova-Muryleva E.V., Dzhaokhadze E.D. (2025). Wholesale CBDC Payment Systems and the Potential of the Digital Ruble in Cross-border Settlements. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 26–43 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-26-43.
© Sinelnikova-Muryleva E.V., Dzhaokhadze E.D., 2025

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G.V. Morunova, V.A. Fedosov, A.S. Saltykov
Financial Management Information Systems in Russia: Current State and Prospects of Development
, p. 44-61
Abstract
Active development of information systems of the budget process in Russia and other countries actualizes the importance of research in this area. Without the use of information systems it is difficult to imagine the work of public authorities on budgeting and budget execution. The purpose of the study is to analyze the functioning of information systems that ensure the process of planning, execution and control of the execution of the federal budget and regional budgets, as well as to substantiate the prospective directions of their development. The object of the study is the financial management information systems in the Russian Federation and its constituent entities. In Russia at the regional level there is no unified model of implementation of information systems of public finance management, so the subjects of the Russian Federation acted in two main directions: development of their own information systems and purchase of standard software products from specialized developers. The study reveals that the following directions of development of financial management information systems in the Russian regions are possible: 1) a decentralized approach on the part of federal authorities with the possibility for Russian regions to use their own software solutions; 2) the creation of all-Russian financial management information systems (or a unified financial management information system) to which Russian regions can be connected. The article pays special attention to the second option, taking into account the need for a balanced and responsible policy in this area in order to preserve the regions’ ability to effectively implement the budget process while taking into account the existing practices.
Keywords: budget process, information systems, financial management information systems, digitalization, regions of the Russian Federation, public finance management
JEL: H10, H70
For citation: Morunova G.V., Fedosov V.A., Saltykov A.S. (2025). Financial Management Information Systems in Russia: Current State and Prospects of Development. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 44–61 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-44-61.
© Morunova G.V., Fedosov V.A., Saltykov A.S., 2025

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L.Yu. Lysova, E.L. Prokopjeva
Potential for Long-term Money in Russia's Pension System
, p. 83-103
Abstract
The key tasks for the Russian economy are to attract long-term financial resources and improve the standard of living of citizens of retirement age. The article examines mechanisms and tools for addressing these issues, drawing on foreign practices and the domestic potential of the pension system. The research methodology includes a comparative analysis of pension models in different countries and a summary of their characteristics, including sources of funding, age parameters, and income levels. Pension systems in different countries are ranked according to the level of pension payments in GDP and citizens’ participation in their pension provision. The study of the Russian pension system provides a chronology, pension provision indicators, and the profitability of pension reserves. It has been found that the share of non-state pension provision in the structure of citizens’ savings and investment products is insignificant. An assessment was made of the prospects for pension provision instruments — long-term savings programs and pension programs offered by life insurance companies; their advantages, risks, and role in the formation of investment resources were outlined. As a result, general trends were identified in the formation and implementation of pension provision in global practice, taking into account population aging and the increase in the retirement age, more active participation of employers and citizens in the formation of pension savings, and increased flexibility of pension plans considering the individual profile of the consumer. Foreign experience and domestic history of pension system’s formation are of interest for developing strategic directions for its development in Russia and increasing its efficiency. To address this issue, the authors propose the following measures: expanding programs to encourage employers and employees, including self-employed individuals, to participate in non-state pension provision; increasing the flexibility of individual pension plans offered by non-state pension funds; encouraging life insurance companies to participate in pension provision; modernizing and increasing the attractiveness of longterm savings programs and similar savings products for citizens. These measures will contribute to improving the standard of living of citizens in the medium and long term and can serve as a stable source of long-term funds in the economy.
Keywords: pension system, long money, investments, pension models, long-term savings program, life insurance
JEL: G23, H55, I38
For citation: Lysova L.Yu., Prokopjeva E.L. (2025). Potential for Long-term Money in Russia's Pension System. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 83–103 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-83-103.
© Lysova L.Yu., Prokopjeva E.L., 2025

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N.Yu. Kamenskaya, K.V. Shvandar, A.R. Grigoryev
Foreign Experience in Improving Pension Provision for Civil Servants
, p. 104-118
Abstract
The relevance of studying the forms, methods and ways of providing pension services to the population of different countries of the world is not weakening. The reason is constant changes occurring in various spheres of national economies, and primarily in the structure of the labor force and population, as well as the state of financial markets. Without monitoring of the ongoing changes and development of measures to control and overcome negative trends (such as the rapid aging of the labor force observed in South Korea), it is difficult to promptly prevent the growing imbalances of the national pension systems. The purpose of this article is to present the results of a study of civil servants pension models in a number of countries with developed pension systems, including the United States, South Korea, South Africa, Canada and the Netherlands. The study revealed that most of the countries reviewed have recently undergone pension system reforms that affected civil servants’ pensions. At the same time, there are more differences than commonalities in the models of organization of pension provision for civil servants in these countries. Thus, there is a different degree of integration of pension provision for public and private sector employees, the shares of civil servants in the total labor force vary greatly, the rates of replacement of labor income by pensions differ almost twice, etc. However, the government in these countries has not only found an adequate balance between the levels of the pension system, but also constantly improves them depending on external and internal conditions, trying to maintain the stability of the national pension system.
Keywords: pension system, civil servant pensions, replacement rate, USA, South Korea, South Africa, Canada, Netherlands
JEL: H55, I38, J26
For citation: Kamenskaya N.Yu., Shvandar K.V. , Grigoryev A.R. (2025). Foreign Experience in Improving Pension Provision for Civil Servants. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 104–118 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-104-118.
© Kamenskaya N.Yu., Shvandar K.V. , Grigoryev A.R., 2025

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I.V. Naumov, N.L. Nikulina, A.A. Bychkova
Modeling Scenarios and Forecasting Risks of Bankruptcy for Metallurgical Enterprises: The Case of the Sverdlovsk Region
, p. 119-136
Abstract
The subject of the study is forecasting of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises in the metallurgical industry. Particular attention is paid to assessing the impact of macroeconomic factors, such as currency exchange rate dynamics, investments in fixed capital, the degree of depreciation of fixed assets and asset turnover, on the financial stability of enterprises in the industry. The objective of the work is to develop scenario models for predicting the probability of bankruptcy of metallurgical enterprises in the Sverdlovsk Region using control variables characterizing the influence of economic factors. The authors used regression analysis and autoregressive modeling (ARIMA/ARMA). Inertial, extremely pessimistic and optimistic forecasts were constructed for changes in key factors affecting the stability of enterprises in the metallurgical sector (from the level of depreciation of fixed assets, the volume of investments in fixed capital, the production technologies used, the growth of foreign currency exchange rates, etc.), as well as corresponding forecast scenarios for the probability of their bankruptcy. Forecasting the probability of bankruptcy among metallurgical enterprises in the Sverdlovsk Region shows that large enterprises have moderate financial stability, while small and medium-sized enterprises are exposed to significant risks. The scenario analysis revealed the key role of technological renewal and investment in fixed assets as factors that increase the stability of enterprises. The methodological approach proposed in the paper allows to determine the financial stability of enterprises, assess the probability of their bankruptcy and the impact of the key factors using a regression model, forecast the dynamics of these factors using autoregressive modeling with a moving average, and design forecast scenarios. This approach can be applied in strategic planning and development of state support measures for enterprises aimed at reducing bankruptcy risks and ensuring sustainable development of the industry.
Keywords: probability of bankruptcy, regression analysis, ARIMA modeling, metallurgy, forecast, region
JEL: G33
Funding: The research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 24-28-00704 "Modeling Scenarios and Forecasting Risks of Bankruptcy in Industries in the Sverdlovsk Region" (https://rscf.ru/project/24-28-00704/).
For citation: Naumov I.V., Nikulina N.L., Bychkova A.A. (2025). Modeling Scenarios and Forecasting Risks of Bankruptcy for Metallurgical Enterprises: The Case of the Sverdlovsk Region. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 119–136 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-119-136.
© Naumov I.V., Nikulina N.L., Bychkova A.A., 2025

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Financial Journal Vol.17 No.3 2025

CONTENTS

M.R. Pinskaya, Yu.A. Steshenko
Efficiency of Application of Tax on Additional Income from Hydrocarbon Raw Materials
, p. 8-24
Abstract
Despite an increase in the share of non-oil and gas revenues in the federal budget of the Russian Federation, the Russian economy is still largely dependent on oil and gas revenues. As a result of the tax reform in the oil and gas sector, the role of revenues from the tax on additional income from hydrocarbons (hereinafter referred to as the TAI regime) has significantly increased, as well asthe quantity of mineral resources extracted in subsoil areas where TAI is applied. The TAI regime is preferential, since it implies the availability of tax incentives and a significant amount of tax expenses arising from their application. However, ineffective tax benefits that result in tax expenditures may significantly limit the growth and development of the oil sector in Russia. It should also be noted that the negative impact on the environment and carbon footprint is increasing due to the growth of production volumes. That is why the topic of this study is relevant. The purpose of the study is to identify the key features of taxation of subsoil areas where the TAI regime is applied and to assess the effectiveness of the comprehensive tax incentive. The hypothesis of the study is that the amount of tax expenditures resulting from the application of the TAI regime is lower than the volume of investments and the amount of tax expenditures in subsoil areas where the TAI regime is applied. As a methodological basis, a system analysis of the provisions of legislation in the field of taxation of natural resources was used. The effectiveness of the TAI regime was assessed using the methods of statistical data analysis. The study creates a methodological tool for assessing the effectiveness of investment-oriented tax incentives, which includes the TAI regime, thereby contributing to the growth of knowledge in the area of taxation theory. From an applied point of view, the results are useful for the development and justification of decisions on improving and (or) expanding the TAI regime in Russia.
Keywords: tax on additional income from hydrocarbon extraction, tax on mineral extraction, investment, comprehensive benefit, tax expenditures, oil and gas revenues, tax incentives, carbon footprint
JEL: H21, H22, H23
For citation: Pinskaya M.R., Steshenko Yu.A. (2025). Efficiency of Application of Tax on Additional Income from Hydrocarbon Production. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 8-24 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-8-24.
© Pinskaya M.R., Steshenko Yu.A., 2025

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I.Yu. Arlashkin
Improving the Assessment of Regional Tax Capacity by Selected Types of Taxes,
p. 25-38
Abstract
Sub-federal authorities have the power to administer transportation tax, gambling tax, local taxes and taxes on total income, including setting rates, providing benefits or determining the tax base, which makes these taxes an important instrument of sub-national revenue policy. Together with the state duty, they make up about 10% of sub-federal tax revenues and are generally referred to as other types of taxes when assessing tax capacity in calculating fiscal equalization grants to regions. Given the increasing role of other types of taxes, the task of correct assessment of tax potential for them is becoming more and more urgent. The article examines the relationship between a region’s share in actual revenues from other types of taxes, a region’s share in the total labor force and a region’s shares in actual revenues from individual taxes using a sample of 85 regions for 2019–2023. The panel regression model employs individual fixed effects, which allows us to account for the impact of region-specific factors, including the level of regional tax competition, such as reduced tax rates and additional tax benefits. The assessment results show that the tax capacity for other types of taxes is proportional to the region’s share in the total labor force and the region’s share in the tax potential for personal income tax. These results allow us to refine the formula for assessing tax capacity for other types of taxes. Since the Russian tax system is currently undergoing significant changes, including those related to profit tax and tax levied in connection with the application of the simplified tax system, the obtained estimates can be subsequently refined using new data.
Keywords:
tax capacity, fiscal capacity, equalization grants, fiscal equalization, regional budgets
JEL:
H73, H77
Funding:
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
For citation:
Arlashkin I.Yu. (2025). Improving the Assessment of Regional Tax Capacity by Selected Types of Taxes. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 25–38 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-25-38.
© Arlashkin I.Yu., 2025

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A.V. Tikhonova, M.V. Pyanova
Tax Mechanism to Counteract Business Fragmentation in Agriculture, 
p. 39-53
Abstract
The subject of this study is tax risks of agricultural producers associated with business fragmentation. The purpose of the study is to develop proposals for improving taxation and tax control in agriculture, contributing to the reduction of business fragmentation risks. The specific features of taxation in agriculture is conditioned by the mandatory compliance with the share of qualifying revenue from the sale of agricultural products and products of their primary and subsequent processing. This leads to the risk of business fragmentation for dishonest taxpayers. The authors analyze general approaches to identifying business fragmentation schemes and identify the criteria for artificial business fragmentation on the basis of arbitration practice materials and clarifications of the Federal Tax Service. А typical splitting scheme in agriculture is presented and disclosed. It is derived from tax incentives and preferences in agriculture, systematized in tabular form. The existing concept of risk-based approach of tax authorities does not contain special industry criteria. The study proposes a three-element mechanism for preventing splitting risks in agriculture and develops criteria for identifying illegal tax optimization schemes in the industry. The proposed mechanism includes simplification of the procedure for the application of tax incentives; establishment of indicators of “voluntary” use of benefits in agriculture; strengthening of tax control over transactions involving business splitting. The proposals contribute to a more effective implementation of the following classical and modern principles of taxation: fairness, equal competition, plurality of taxation in the sectoral context. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the comprehensive development of a new methodological approach to the formation of a mechanism for preventing the risks of business fragmentation in agriculture, taking into account the current capabilities of tax authorities and sectoral features of the economy. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the authors’ proposals by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Federal Tax Service of Russia when elaborating measures for the development of agriculture and sectoral tax control.
Keywords: tax benefits, zero rate, agricultural stimulation, qualifying revenue, Unified Agricultural Tax
JEL: H26, E62
Funding: The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University.
For citation: Tikhonova A.V., Pyanova M.V. (2025). Tax Mechanism to Counteract Business Fragmentation in Agriculture. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 39–53 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-39-53.
© Tikhonova A.V., Pyanova M.V., 2025

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A.I. Pogorletskiy
Tax Evasion in the Modern World: Institutional Aspects, 
p. 54-71
Abstract
The purpose of the article is to systematize the institutional characteristics of tax evasion in the system of international economic relations. The role of institutional structures in preventing individuals and legal entities from failing to fulfill their tax obligations is characterized. The object of the research is the institutional environment that constitutes the mechanisms of tax evasion at the national and global levels. The research methodology includes graphical and comparative methods, as well as system and functional approaches to the characterization of institutions and socio-economic phenomena in the context of tax evasion. Historical and logical analysis of institutional aspects of this phenomenon in the global economic environment is carried out. The information base consists of fundamental works on the identification of the causes and consequences of tax evasion, published by leading theorists of financial and tax science, as well as authoritative classic and modern works in the fields of social sciences. In order to assess the scale and impact of tax evasion on the modern system of global economic relations, reports and studies of international organizations (OECD, UN, IMF, etc.) and a number of research centers were used. The hypothesis of the study was that institutional factors are significant both for explaining the causes of tax evasion and for choosing appropriate mechanisms to counteract this phenomenon. The research resulted in a typology of institutional preconditions and consequences of tax evasion, previously absent in existing publications and first proposed by the author, designed to help regulators to have more meaningful impact on this process in the contemporary world economy. The main findings suggest that institutional factors significantly affect tax evasion. Formal rules of taxation established by the state, as well as tacit moral and ethical norms of behavior based on culture and religion, determine the behavior of individuals and business entities, the influence on which by interstate institutional structures of tax regulation seems necessary.
Keywords: global tax regulation, institutes of tax behavior, institutes of tax regulation, institutes of taxation, offshore activities, tax evasion, tax optimization
JEL: B52, F55, H26
Funding: The article is based on the results of the research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds within the framework of the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
For citation: Pogorletskiy A.I. (2025). Tax Evasion in the Modern World: Institutional Aspects. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 54–71 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-54-71.
© Pogorletskiy A.I., 2025

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N.E. Barbashova, O.V. Suchkova
Application of Financial Management Tools to Ensure Budget Balance and Debt Sustainability in Russian Regions, 
p. 72-89
Abstract
One of the priority task of the budget policy of the Russian Federation is to ensure long-term balance and debt sustainability at all levels of the budget system. To solve this task, the subjects of the Russian Federation implement programs and sets of measures of improving the quality of financial management. The purpose of this article is to identify the tools of regional finance management, the use of which is most effective for ensuring medium- and long-term balance and debt sustainability of the budgets of Russian regions. The article analyzes theoretical approaches to the use of regional financial management tools. The inventory of programs and sets of measures aimed at improving the efficiency and quality of financial management used by the subjects of the Russian Federation in the period from 2000 to the present is carried out. By means of econometric analysis, the authors identify the directions of regional financial management programs, the implementation of which has a positive impact on the balance and debt sustainability of regional budgets. These areas include limiting the regional budget deficit, limiting the amounts of regional and municipal debt, setting a debt repayment schedule, stimulating income growth and reducing inefficient expenditures. A list of the most effective measures to limit the deficit and debt was compiled, based on the analysis of the practice of the subjects of the Russian Federation which demonstrated a significant improvement in the parameters of the budget balance and public debt in 2014–2023.
Keywords: regional financial management tools, budget balance, debt sustainability
JEL: H61, H62, H63
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Barbashova N.E., Suchkova O.V. (2025). Application of Financial Management Tools to Ensure Budget Balance and Debt Sustainability in Russian Regions. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 72–89 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-72-89.
© Barbashova N.E., Suchkova O.V., 2025

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A.I. Lukashov
Theoretical and Applied Aspects of Treasury Financial Control in the Context of Improving Financial Discipline, 
p. 90-107
Abstract
The article considers the key aspects of introduction and prospects of development of certain types of treasury services, treasury support and budget (treasury) monitoring. These mechanisms, based on the current form of control, allow to minimize various violations, which helps to increase the financial discipline of participants and non-participants of the budget process. A new term — "treasury financial control" — is introduced into scientific discourse. The methodology for determining the effectiveness and efficiency of treasury services and treasury support is proposed, the use of which will contribute, on the one hand, to the expansion of the theoretical basis for the study of the treasury system, on the other hand, to obtaining an objective assessment of the application of these mechanisms.
Keywords: Treasury of Russia, treasury financial control, treasury services, treasury support, budget monitoring
JEL: Е62, E63, Н61, Н72, G28, P35
For citation: Lukashov A.I. (2025). Theoretical and Applied Aspects of Treasury Financial Control in the Context of Improving Financial Discipline. Financial Journal, 17 (3), X90–107 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-90-107.
© Lukashov A.I., 2025

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E.P. Dobronravova
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Loan and Deposit Rates in the Context of Limited Capital Mobility in Russia, 
p. 108-125
Abstract
According to the macroeconomic theory, capital controls should improve the transmission of interest rates from the monetary policy rate to market-based short- and long-term rates, as the latter are less affected by global financial conditions. We test this hypothesis using the case of the Russian economy, which faces massive domestic and external restrictions on capital flows in 2022–2024. During this period, the pass-through of interest rates could be reduced: for long-term deposits — by the high level of uncertainty in the Russian economy, for credit rates — by broad preferential lending programs: mortgages, SME lending, agricultural lending, etc. The study was conducted using the error correction model, which is commonly used in modeling the pass-through of interest rates in the credit and deposit markets. Such a model allows us to estimate the short- and long-run effects of a change in the monetary policy rate, as well as the speed of adjustment to a new long-run equilibrium. Proxy variables for capital restrictions and preferential lending were included in the model as a change in the slope to the monetary policy rate. The results of the analysis show that both short- and long-run pass-throughs in the retail deposit market have intensified since March 2022. Moreover, when we add a control variable reflecting the extent of preferential lending, we are able to confirm our hypothesis for long-term interest rates on individual credits and short-term interest rates on credits to non-financial organizations. The expansion of preferential lending in most model specifications had a negative impact on the effectiveness of passthrough lending.
Keywords: monetary policy, capital controls, interest rate pass through, deposit rates, lending rates, preferential lending, econometric analysis
JEL: C22, E43, E52, E58
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Dobronravova E.P. (2025). The Impact of Monetary Policy on Loan and Deposit Rates in the Context of Limited Capital Mobility in Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 108–125 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-108-125.
© Dobronravova E.P., 2025

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E.M. Pastukhov, S.V. Grishunin
Assessing the Impact of the Digital Ruble on Commercial Bank Deposits in Russia, 
p. 126-140
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to present a model for assessing the impact of the implementation of the digital ruble project on commercial banks’ deposits in the Russian financial market. The relevance of this research is due to the rapid growth of market capitalization of central banks’ digital currencies in both international and Russian financial markets, as more and more countries are preparing to launch their own national digital currencies. However, there is a lack of information in both academic and practical literature regarding the potential impact of central bank digital currencies, including the digital ruble, on the stability of commercial banks, particularly concerning deposits. We propose a model to estimate the impact of the digital ruble on the size of deposits of commercial banks in Russia. The data used for the study included official statistics and analytics of the Bank of Russia and commercial banks. Based on the results of the analysis, we conclude that the effects of the digital ruble implementation are heterogeneous and do not differ much between categories of banks in terms of capital and investments in government securities, but are significantly differentiated depending on the size of assets and level of overdue debt. Furthermore, we suggest that the effect of the digital ruble will diminish over time. Future research could focus on quantifying the wide range of risks associated with the introduction of digital financial assets, as well as modeling the supply and demand for these assets, including potential practical adaptations by banks to changes in market conditions.
Keywords: CBDC, digital ruble, digital assets, digital financial assets, digital finance
JEL: G21
Funding: The research was supported by RSF (project No. 23-18-00756).
For citation: Pastukhov E.M., Grishunin S.V. (2025). Assessing the Impact of the Digital Ruble on Commercial Bank Deposits in Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 126–140 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-126-140.
© Pastukhov E.M., Grishunin S.V., 2025

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Financial Journal Vol.17 No.2 2025

CONTENTS

V.V. Vagin
Preface to the Еhematic Issue
, p. 9-11

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D.A. Shatohin, E.A. Titov, V.A. Paksivatkina
Models of Digitalization of Initiative (Participatory) Budgeting
, p. 12-24
Abstract
This article examines foreign and Russian models of digitalization of citizens’ participation in the budgeting process. It identifies the existing approaches, organizational structures and key challenges associated with the implementation of digital technologies in initiative budgeting. The study highlights the use of various digital solutions which is influenced by the diversity of models and the level of maturity of initiative (participatory) budgeting practices. The authors substantiate the relevance of this topic and present a series of recommendations aimed at promoting the digital transformation of the analyzed mechanism.
Keywords: initiative budgeting, participatory budgeting, digital participation, digitalization
JEL: H72, H76, O33
For citation: Shatohin D.A., Titov E.A., Paksivatkina V.A. (2025). Models of Digitalization of Initiative (Participatory) Budgeting. Financial Journal, 17 (2), 12–24 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-2-12-24.
© Shatohin D.A., Titov E.A., Paksivatkina V.A., 2025

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B.V. Kupriyanov, E.M. Karpova, M.A. Shevelev
Potential of Participatory School Budgeting Practices in Improving Financial Literacy of Students
, p. 25-38
Abstract
Over the last five years, initiative school budgeting has become a noticeable part of the Russian educational landscape. However, the educational opportunities of this practice are not fully utilized. Since 2021, the staff of the NIFI Initiative Budgeting Center of the Russian Ministry of Finance has developed and is actively implementing an original model of initiative school budgeting focused on the integration of the practice of initiative budgeting into the educational process and targeted solution of educational tasks. The next stage of this work is to explore the possibilities of initiative budgeting in the context of improving financial literacy of students. The assumption that initiative budgeting at school can improve financial literacy in the aspects most relevant to adolescence is substantiated in this article based on the analysis of existing normative documents, domestic and foreign studies, as well as domestic experience. To clarify scientific ideas about financial literacy as an educational result (social attitude, readiness for a certain type of behavior), a significant body of modern research on financial behavior and financial literacy was analyzed. The authors propose a model of the potential of initiative school budgeting in improving students’ financial literacy, including value, emotional, cognitive, operational and behavioral components. The achievability of potential components is justified by a set of situations arising in the implementation of initiative budgeting in general education organizations. The proposed model allows to develop an empirical research program and select diagnostic procedures. The presented material can be helpful for teachers who use initiative school budgeting to improve students’ financial literacy.
Keywords: improving financial literacy of schoolchildren, budget literacy, participatory school budgeting, educational opportunities and effects of participatory school budgeting
JEL: A29, G53, H41, H61, R53
For citation: Kupriyanov B.V., Karpova E.M., Shevelev M.A. (2025). Potential of Participatory School Budgeting Practices in Improving Financial Literacy of Students. Financial Journal, 17 (2), 25–38 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-2-25-38.
© Kupriyanov B.V., Karpova E.M., Shevelev M.A., 2025

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N.G. Lukyanova, M.Yu. Slavgorodskaya, S.K. Nesgovorov
School Initiative Budgeting in St. Petersburg: Achievements and Growth Points
, p. 39-55
Abstract
In recent years, school initiative budgeting in St. Petersburg has established itself as one of the best regional practices with significant potential for replication not only at the regional but also at the municipal level. The expansion of initiative budgeting to adolescents in St. Petersburg was based on the successful experience of implementing this practice for adult participants under the “Your Budget” project. The article includes an overview of methodological features of school initiative budgeting in St. Petersburg and an analysis of the effects achieved asa a result of its application and opportunities for further improvement. The study analyzes the results of the survey of project participants in 2024. It summarizes the most significant challenges and risks that arose in the course of the project implementation, and draws conclusions about promising directions for further development of the practice.
Keywords: initiative budgeting, school initiative budgeting, “Your Budget” project, “Your Budget in Schools” project, student project activities, “Children’s Foresight” technology
JEL: H72, H75, O35, I28
For citation: Lukyanova N.G., Slavgorodskaya M.Yu., Nesgovorov S.K. (2025). School Initiative Budgeting in St. Petersburg: Achievements and Growth Points. Financial Journal, 17 (2), 39–55 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-2-39-55.
© Lukyanova N.G., Slavgorodskaya M.Yu., Nesgovorov S.K., 2025

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V.V. Vagin, I.V. Petrova, M.V. Kurakolov
Initiative Budgeting in Central Asia and Transcaucasia: Prerequisites and Trajectories
, p. 56-71
Abstract
The article explores the experience of introducing initiative budgeting in a number of Central Asian and Transcaucasian countries. It analyzes citizens’ involvement in the process of budgetary decision-making and defines the regulatory, financial, and organizational characteristics of the emerging management structure for this financial innovation. Effective participation of citizens contributes to the formation of more balanced and equitable budgets that reflect the actual needs of society. The development of initiative budgeting in the Republic of Uzbekistan is characterized as dynamic, with a special emphasis on modernization and digitalization of civic engagement processes, allowing a significant part of the population to actively participate in determining the priorities of state budget expenditures. In the Kyrgyz Republic, this approach has proven highly effective at the level of local authorities, where citizens actively influence the allocation of limited resources, thereby improving the quality of life in their communities. The financial authorities of the Republic of Armenia consider initiative budgeting as a means of enhancing public confidence in the government and the efficiency of budgetary resource allocation. The Republic of Kazakhstan, in turn, focuses on the adoption of advanced technologies to increase transparency and accessibility of budgetary data for a wide audience. In most Central Asian and Transcaucasian countries, the key role in the development of initiative budgeting is played by financial authorities at both national and local levels. This article will be of interest to researchers specializing in budgetary and financial trends and civic engagement in these regions.
Keywords: initiative budgeting, participatory budgeting, open budget, citizens’ involvement, people’s participation budget
JEL: H72, H76, H79, G28, F55, R58
For citation: Vagin V.V., Petrova I.V., Kurakolov M.V. (2025). Initiative Budgeting in Central Asia and Transcaucasia: Prerequisites and Trajectories. Financial Journal, 17 (2), 56–71 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-2-56-71.
© Vagin V.V., Petrova I.V., Kurakolov M.V., 2025

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Ming Zhuang
Review of Participatory Budgeting Practices in China
, p. 72-81
Abstract
This paper examines the development, implementation and challenges of participatory budgeting (PB) in various cities in China, including Beijing, Jiaozuo, Shenzhen and others. It explores the diverse origins, sustainability, depth, and breadth of citizen engagement in PB initiatives, as well as institutional and political factors influencing their effectiveness. The study highlights key challenges such as transparency and institutionalization of PB and its integration into existing governance structures. It also discusses the role of digital technologies in enhancing participatory processes, improving fiscal transparency and broadening citizen involvement. The paper concludes with a discussion on the future of PB in China, emphasizing the need for policy reforms, digital innovations and international comparative research to ensure its long-term viability and impact on public governance.
Keywords: participatory budgeting in China, public finance, citizen engagement, digital governance, public participation
JEL: H61, H83, P35
For citation: Ming Zhuang (2025). Review of Participatory Budgeting Practices in China. Financial Journal, 17 (2), 72–81.
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-2-72-81.
© Ming Zhuang, 2025

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O.Yu. Dmitrieva, E.N. Kadyshev, P.G. Gorbynova, A.O. Patyanova
Regional Practice of Coordination of Activities to Increase Financial Literacy of the Population
, p. 82-99
Abstract
The level of financial literacy of the population plays a crucial role in the sustainable socio-economic development of the country. Russian regions are actively engaged in the process of enhancing financial literacy of citizens as part of the implementation of the Strategy for Improving Financial Literacy and Developing Financial Culture until 2030. However, each region adopts its own approach to the organization of the financial education system aimed at transferring financial knowledge and skills to all segments of society. At the regional level, coordination of stakeholder interaction in the field of financial literacy is one of the key factors in building an effective financial education system. This highlights the importance of conducting a study on the existing regional practices of enhancing financial literacy. The article presents the mechanism of coordination of stakeholder interaction in the field of improving financial literacy of the population on the example of the Chuvash Republic. The emerging coordination mechanism includes the establishment of a single coordinating body responsible for the overall coordination, implementation, and monitoring of activities; a unified structure for obtaining and disseminating information among stakeholders; and expert support of initiatives. At the regional level, the key centers of financial education system development are the regional centers of financial literacy. The article also identifies the factors directly affecting the development of financial education system, which are shaped at the state level and impact the national system of financial education as a whole; factors specific to the region; and factors that take into account the unique features of the regional system.
Keywords: financial literacy, financial education, coordination, regional practice, population
JEL: D14, G10, R10
Funding: The study was supported by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 24-28-20497) and the Chuvash Republic, https://rscf.ru/project/24-28-20497/.
For citation: Dmitrieva O.Yu. et al. (2025). Regional Practice of Coordination of Activities to Increase Financial Literacy of the Population. Financial Journal, 17 (2), 82–99 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-2-82-99.
© Dmitrieva O.Yu., Kadyshev E.N., Gorbynova P.G., Patyanova A.O., 2025

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A.S. Larionov
The Role of the State in the Creation and Development of an Ecosystem of Venture Capital Investment,
Startups and Technological Innovations in the Israeli Economy
, p. 100-121
Abstract
State programs for support, development and stimulation of venture capital investment implemented in the State of Israel between 1990 and 2024 have created a world-class innovation ecosystem. This study is devoted to the role of the state in stimulating venture capital investment within the country as part of the creation and development of the technological sectors of the state economy. The author formed a comprehensive view through the prism of Israel’s historical experience on the system of state support for venture investors, identifying elements of successful state experience that can be replicated in other countries. The advantages and disadvantages of key state support programs for the innovation ecosystem were considered: Magnet, Magneton, Magnet Consortia, Tnufa, Yozma, Yozma-2, Superfund, the incubator and accelerator programs. The results of the state support programs were evaluated through an analysis of their impact on the KPIs of the venture ecosystem in Israel. The relevance of the research topic is due to the growing role of state institutions and programs in supporting and stimulating the innovative economy, developing small technology companies, attracting venture capital investment to achieve technological sovereignty of the country.
Keywords: startups, R&D, innovation, venture capital investment, technology sector, universities, technology transfer
JEL: G21, G23, G24, O30
For citation: Larionov A.C. (2025). The Role of the State in the Creation and Development of an Ecosystem of Venture Capital Investment, Startups and Technological Innovations in the Israeli Economy. Financial Journal, 17 (2), 100–121 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-2-100-121.
© Larionov A.C., 2025

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P.O. Shchukina, P.A. Lavrinenko, A.G. Mirzoyan, A.A. Galich
The Relationship between Corporate Governance Quality and Dividend Payments
of Russian Stock Market Companies: A Quality Index Approach
, p. 122-136
Abstract
The article analyzes the relationship between the quality of corporate governance and the size of dividend payments. The purpose is to assess the relationship between the degree of compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia on corporate governance and the size of dividend payments of companies on the Russian stock market. The novelty of this work lies in the use of an index that allows to assess the quality of corporate governance in Russian companies based on the degree of compliance with the requirements of seven sections of the Bank of Russia Corporate Governance Code. When analyzing a sample of 28 public companies on the Russian stock market for the period from 2010 to 2022 using fixed-effects regression models, a positive relationship between the degree of compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia and dividend payments was found. This is consistent with the outcome model: the higher the quality of corporate governance, the higher the level of dividend payments.
Keywords: corporate governance, corporate governance code, dividend payments, dividend yield, company, result model
JEL: G34, G35
For citation: Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A. (2025). The Relationship between Corporate Governance Quality and Dividend Payments of Russian Stock Market Companies: A Quality Index Approach. Financial Journal, 17 (2), 122–136 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-2-122-136.
© Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A., 2025

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Financial Journal Vol.17 No.1 2025

CONTENTS

A.E. Abramov, M.I. Chernova, A.G. Kosyrev
Private and Collective Direct Investments in Popular Shares of Russian Companies
, p. 8-26
Abstract
The arrival of tens of millions of private investors to the stock exchange and their involvement in direct stock trading increases the relevance of empirical studies of the effectiveness of their strategies. The article analyzes for the first time the return and risks of the so-called people's portfolio published by the Moscow Exchange. The aim is to study the profitability and risks associated with investing in the most popular stocks on the Russian market, which are highlighted by the publication of the people's portfolio. This study confirms the phenomenon of “wisdom of the crowd” in the domestic stock market, as it shows that the yield of the people's portfolio is comparable with or even higher than that of the widely used Moscow Exchange indices. We reveal similar patterns in the investment preferences of private investors among Russian and American brokers. At the same time, the risk of herding behavior of private investors keeps increasing along with the concentration of their trades in a narrow range of high-profile stocks. In contrast to traditional mechanisms of increasing the risk of investors’ herding behavior through social networks and online brokerage applications, we show that popularization of people's portfolio by the stock exchange can have a similar effect. The returns of the people's portfolioare significantly lower than more diversified portfolios of Russian companies, which increases private investors’ risks from active trading strategies. The growing popularity of exchange-traded mutual funds does not yet allow private investors to take advantage of broader diversification, as the assets of these funds are dominated by the same stocks as in the people's portfolio. Investing in more diversified passive factor strategies could significantly improve the performance of both private investors and exchange-traded funds compared to investing in people's portfolio stocks. It would also help to improve the financing of new and growing companies on the Moscow Exchange.
Keywords: 
people’s portfolio, stock market, private investor, factor strategies, mutual investment funds, diversification
JEL: 
G10, G11, G17, G40
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: 
Abramov A.E., Chernova M.I., Kosyrev A.G. (2025). Private and Collective Direct Investments in Popular Shares of Russian Companies. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 8–26 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-8-26.
© Abramov A.E., Chernova M.I., Kosyrev A.G., 2025

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V. I. Bartenev
Guarantee Instruments in International Development Finance: Factors, Dynamics and Prospects
, p. 27-44
Abstract
This paper examines the role of guarantee instruments in the modern system of international development finance and unveils the key factors affecting the dynamics and prospects of their use. The analysis shows that these instruments have existed for decades, but have gained prominence in the XXI century. Their recognition as indispensable tools for mitigating risks to private capital, particularly political risks, has been reflected in more mentions in milestone policy documents, organizational and intellectual efforts to revise statistical reporting rules and larger volumes of private finance mobilized. However, available OECD data show insufficient use of guarantees for development purposes, extreme disproportions in mobilized finance among providers (both bilateral and multilateral), beneficiary countries and sectors and a high portfolio heterogeneity. The prospects of the distribution of guarantees will be influenced by new statistical reporting principles and a number of powerful economic and noneconomic factors, such as: 1) a lack of progress on the Sustainable Development Goals; 2) worsening budgetary constraints in developed countries, hindering the increase in official development assistance; 3) intensifying geopolitical rivalries. A possible increase in the provision of development guarantees can only be welcomed. However, if it is accompanied by a reduction in funding for traditional aid programs affecting the fundamental factors of commercial and non-commercial risks, as well as prioritization of less vulnerable but more strategically important countries, the positive effect will fall short of expectations.
Keywords: guarantees, political risk insurance, development finance, official development assistance, statistical reporting, international financial institutions, private sector
JEL: F21, F35, F52, F53
Funding: This research was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project No. 23-28-01060, https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-28-01060/.
For citation: Bartenev V.I. (2025). Guarantee Instruments in International Development Finance: Factors, Dynamics, and Prospects. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 27–44 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-27-44.
© Bartenev V.I., 2025

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I.I. Yakovleva
Restrictions on Cross-border Capital Flows: Evolution of the IMF’s Position and Key Trends
, p. 45-61
Abstract
The article describes the evolution of the International Monetary Fund’s position regarding restrictions on cross-border capital flows. The prerequisites of transition from one stage of evolution to another are discussed. Specific attention is paid to the adjustments of the IMF’s position after the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. There has been a revision of perceptions about the benefits and risks of moving towards a more open capital account. Particular attention is paid to the period after 2012, when the institutional approach to capital controls was proposed. Since then, it has defined the IMF's position with some additions and adjustments. Taking into account this institutional view, the experience of individual countries’ imposition of cross-border capital flow restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic is examined. Moreover, using data from AREAER reports and de jure capital mobility indices, this paper attempts to identify the main trends in capital account restrictions for different groups of countries depending on their income levels and initial capital mobility. Conclusions are drawn about the possible reasons for changes in the IMF’s stance, as well as on the specifics of capital mobility faced by particular groups of countries. This is particularly relevant for Russia due to the capital controls introduced in 2022.
Keywords: capital controls, cross-border capital flows, institutional view, institutional approach, International Monetary Fund, capital inflow, capital outflow, liberalization
JEL: B27, F02, F32, F38
Funding: The article was prepared as part of the research project under the state assignment of RANEPA.
For citation: Yakovleva I.I. (2025). Restrictions on Cross-border Capital Flows: Evolution of the IMF’s Position and Key Trends. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 45–61 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-45-61.
© Yakovleva I.I., 2025

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A.I. Votinov, Ju.A. Polshchikova, K.A. Nersisyan
Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times
, p. 62-73
Abstract
Recent trends in the global world (the financial and coronavirus crises, global geopolitical uncertainty, etc.) put macroeconomic modeling in front of the need to consider crisis phenomena in models. In this paper we try to answer the question of what has changed in macroeconomic modeling due to the coronavirus crisis and other shocks that the global economy has faced recently. Based on the literature review, the current directions in the implementation of the main classes of macroeconomic models in the pandemic and post-pandemic periods are examined. First, approaches to forecasting in crisis conditions are analyzed. Then the emphasis is shifted to nowcasting and projections for short periods of time. Mathematical chaos theory is also considered in the context of forecasting under specific and large shocks. We also discuss general equilibrium models and the relevance of incorporating heterogeneity and epidemiologic concepts into the structure of such models. Finally, we point out to a multiscenario approach to analyzing fiscal sustainability through models in the context of the unprecedented increase of government burdens faced by many countries during crisis.
Keywords: macroeconomic modeling, coronavirus crisis, COVID-19, forecasting, projections, dynamic and static general equilibrium models, public debt sustainability analysis
JEL: E10
For citation: Votinov A.I., Polshchikova Ju.A., Nersisyan K.A. (2025). Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 62–73 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-62-73.
© Votinov A.I., Polshchikova Ju.A., Nersisyan K.A., 2025

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I.K. Klioutchnikov, T.V. Saakyan
Economic Foundations of Rationality and Efficiency of State Subsidies to Business Entities
, p. 74-91
Abstract
Subject. Rationality and efficiency of budgeting state subsidies to business entities. Objectives. To develop a science-based system for assessing the rationality and effectiveness of the process of state subsidization of business entities. Results. The interrelation of rationality and efficiency of the process of budgeting subsidies to business entities is substantiated. Determination of the logic of conceptual justifications of rationality of subsidies budgeting and efficiency of their provision as a single process allowed to open a new research space for modeling and studying the effectiveness of the impact of subsidies both on business entities and on the budget. The schemes of interaction between the state and commercial organizations are analyzed. A modification of ideas about the principles of rationality and efficiency of neoclassical economic theory is proposed. Conclusions. Scientific views on the rationality and efficiency of subsidy budgeting are changing in the process of theory development, economic transformations and clarification of development goals. Model constructions of subsidies movement after their provision from the budget are developed, which will allow us to move to the assessment of the rationality and efficiency of the impact of subsidies on commercial organizations.
Keywords: subsidies, rationality, effectiveness, budgeting, financial assistance
JEL: H21, H25
For citation: Klioutchnikov I.K., Saakyan T.V. (2025). Economic Foundations of Rationality and Efficiency of State Subsidies to Business Entities. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 74–91 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-74-91.
© Klioutchnikov I.K., Saakyan T.V., 2025

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B.I. Alekhin
Ruble Debt Burden
, p. 92-107
Abstract
The burden of ruble debt is measured by a ratio between the amount of rubles that Russians borrowed from their banks and their monetary income. Why ruble debt only? The share of foreign currency credit to Russian households has been declining quite steadily and remained insignificant in recent years. Even in the peak of 2010 it fluctuated around 10%. The purpose of this study is to analyze the size, dynamics and determinants of debt burden. To achieve this purpose, a panel for 81 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2022 was assembled on the basis of official statistics. All variables proved to be non-stationary which allowed to use panel dynamic least squares (DOLS) to estimate the parameters of the cointegrating equation. The estimates proved the existence of long-term, equilibrium relationship between debt burden and explanatory variables. To support our empirical search for drivers of debt burden we relied on the theories of life-cycle, liquidity constraints and behavioral finance. The first two proved to be useful, while the role of behavioral finance remained unclear as it was impossible to operationalize such a murky concept as financial literacy. In accordance with the life-cycle theory, the share of working-age population in the region’s entire population proved to be the main driver of debt burden growth. We also found out that debt burden is positively related to housing prices and liquidity constraints measured by the income required to get the bank loan approved. Finally, the cycle of economic activity also adds to the dynamics of debt burden with the latter increasing in bad times. All these variables are cointegrating partners of debt burden in Russia.
Keywords: mortgage and consumer loans, debt burden, cointegration, regions, Russia
JEL: G51, G21, C58
For citation: Alekhin B.I. (2025). Ruble Debt Burden. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 92–107 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-92-107.
© Alekhin B.I., 2025

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Yu.G. Lavrikova, E.O. Wegner-Kozlova, O.N. Buchinskaia
Organizational and Economic Barriers to the Development of Sustainable
Finance (on the Example of Large Industrial Businesses in the Ural Region)
, p. 108-125
Abstract
Despite the fact that the green finance market in Russia is actively developing, its growth rates still lag behind foreign countries. In order to create incentives to include ESG agendas in the strategic plans of the industrial sector, as well as to adapt financial market participants to new types of risks associated with sustainable development, it is necessary to identify and solve a number of organizational and economic problems. In particular, it is necessary to determine barriers to the development of sustainable investment in ESG projects from the perspective of the real economy sector, which determines the relevance of the study. The purpose of the study was to identify the reasons for the low spread of ESG projects in the activities of the large industrial sector of the Ural region in order to adapt the implementation of the ESG agenda to the needs of enterprises and the national interests of the Russian Federation. The objectives of the study included identifying the attitude of large industrial enterprises in the Ural region to the ESG agenda in terms of corporate and legal issues and operational activities and attitudes to the climate and environmental agenda, as well as determining the readiness of large businesses to use green finance and to disclose information about non-financial reporting and risks. The methodological basis of the study was the results of a questionnaire survey of management personnel responsible for consolidating ESG policy at large industrial enterprises in the Ural region. The results are as follows. All the companies surveyed expressed concerns that disclosure of information in ESG reporting could be used by unfriendly countries for political purposes or by other entities as an instrument of unfair competition. At the same time, the respondents demonstrated significant attention to the negative environmental impact of production activities. In the matters of the climate agenda, respondents are currently guided by legislative requirements. Insufficient attention is also paid to ESG training of personnel. The findings can be useful for creating incentives to include the ESG agenda in the strategic plans of the industrial sector, as well as for adapting green finance market players to new types of risks associated with sustainable development.
Keywords: ESG agenda, ESG reporting, green finance, disclosure, green transition challenges
JEL: D22, G32, L53
For citation: Lavrikova Yu.G., Wegner-Kozlova E.O., Buchinskaia O.N. (2025). Organizational and Economic Barriers to the Development of Sustainable Finance (on the Example of Large Industrial Businesses in the Ural Region). Financial Journal, 17 (1), 108–125 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-108-125.
© Lavrikova Yu.G., Wegner-Kozlova E.O., Buchinskaia O.N., 2025

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ISSN 2658-5332