CONTENTS
M.S. Makushkin
Determinants of the Yield on Russian Sovereign Bonds with Floating Coupons, p. 8-25
Abstract
In recent years, amid the tightening of the monetary policy, floating-rate sovereign bonds (OFZ-PK) have come to play a significant role in the Russian bond market. In conditions of high interest rate volatility, they appear to be an attractive instrument for investors because they reduce the interest rate risk. This makes the analysis of OFZ-PK pricing particularly relevant. This paper uses theoretical models and actual OFZ market data to demonstrate the factors influencing the yield of OFZ-PK bonds. First, it systematizes the main types of OFZ-PK bonds available on the market and discusses the specifics of floating coupon calculation. Then, a theoretical model for evaluating OFZ-PK bonds is presented. It is shown that due to the arithmetic averaging of the floating rate inherent in most OFZ-PK, investors in such securities lose interest capitalization and become exposed to additional interest rate volatility risk. Empirical analysis of the OFZ market data revealed that OFZ-PK bonds trade at a premium to OFZ bonds with a fixed income (OFZ-PD). Most of the premium is explained by the absence of interest capitalization and interest rate volatility. It is shown that the new OFZ-PK bonds with coupons based on the RUONIA forward rate are more suitable for modeling and, in theory, should be comparable in terms of yield to OFZ-PD bonds. However, due to the limited availability of interest rate derivatives in the current Russian market, convergence between OFZ-PK and OFZ-PD yields is not always achievable. The findings of this study may be useful to investors in OFZ-PK bonds and may also be taken into account by issuers when designing the terms for placing floating-rate bonds.
Keywords: bonds, interest rate, OFZ-PK, interest rate volatility
JEL: G12, G13, E43
For citation: Makushkin M.S. (2025). Determinants of the Yield on Russian Sovereign Bonds with Floating Coupons. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 8–25 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-8-25.
© Makushkin M.S., 2025
D.A. Petrova
Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries, p. 26-39
Abstract
This study analyzes international experience in measuring fiscal policy uncertainty and provides quantitative estimates of government spending uncertainty and tax policy uncertainty for Russia from April 2011 to June 2024. The analysis of empirical studies showed that the main periods of fiscal policy uncertainty in the international context are periods of political instability and elections, fiscal and budget debates, large budget deficits, economic crises, and external shocks such as the Gulf wars and the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. Google Trends searches on “fiscal policy” and time-varying volatility of government expenditures calculated on the basis of stochastic volatility models are used to estimate fiscal policy uncertainty on Russian data. Composite indices of fiscal, budget and tax policies uncertainty based on internet queries on Google were obtained using principal component analysis. Stochastic volatility models were estimated for the fiscal instrument on a quarterly basis. The results of the empirical analysis made identified key periods of fiscal policy uncertainty for Russia during the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2024: the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and the geopolitical risks in 2022.
Keywords: fiscal policy uncertainty, government spending policy uncertainty, search queries, internet data, government spending, stochastic volatility model
JEL: E62, D80, C11
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Petrova D.A. (2025). Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 26–39 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-26-39.
© Petrova D.A., 2025
L.V. Barabanova, S.V. Arzhenovskiy, L.V. Antosik, K.A. Tumanyants
Does the Shadow Sector Affect the Profitability of Organizations: A Regional Perspective, p. 40-58
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the lack of works devoted to its topic and based on Russian data. The purpose is to estimate the impact of the shadow economy on the profitability of legally operating companies in Russia, taking into account regional heterogeneity. The information base consisted of annual data from Rosstat and the Federal Treasury for the period from 2014 to 2022 by region. For econometric modeling, the authors used models with composite error on panel data, with spatial effects, as well as a dynamic model with a lagging dependent variable of the profitability level of the regional economy, calculated by Rosstat. The control variables are the autonomy coefficient, the level of regional subsidies, real monetary income and the unemployment rate. The results of econometric modeling empirically prove that an increase in the share of the shadow sector in gross regional product leads to a decrease in the profitability of sales/services and, consequently, to a decrease in the efficiency of the official economic activities of enterprises. The results obtained a) expand the set of factors that can explain fluctuations in the profitability of enterprises in official statistics; b) allow to conclude that the benefits of legal entrepreneurial activity do not yet compensate for the advantages of unofficial business in Russia. In this regard, the state should continue its efforts to change the ratio between them in favor of observed entrepreneurial activity.
Keywords: shadow economy, Russian regions, profitability, panel data, regression analysis
JEL: C23, E26, G32, R15
Acknowledgments: the authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments which helped to improve the text of the article.
Note: the views expressed herein are solely those of the authors. The content and results of this research should not be considered or referred to in any publications as the Bank of Russia’s official position, official policy, or decisions. All errors in this article, if any, are the responsibility of the authors.
For citation: Barabanova L.V., Arzhenovskiy S.V., Antosik L.V., Tumanyants K.A. (2025). Does the Shadow Sector Affect the Profitability of Organisations: A Regional Perspective. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 40–58 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-40-58.
© Barabanova L.V., Arzhenovskiy S.V., Antosik L.V., Tumanyants K.A., 2025
M.V. Sigova
Socially Responsible Investment and Social Inclusion of Russian Companies, p. 59-75
Abstract
Social risks, intensifying due to high income differentiation of the population and uneven territorial development of Russia, increase the relevance of research aimed at finding ways to involve companies in solving social problems in their regions of operation, clarifying theoretical provisions and developing methodological tools for social investment. The article proposes, for the first time, an approach to assessing the social inclusiveness/exclusiveness of companies. The purpose of the work is to justify an approach to measuring the social orientation of investments as a trend in the development of Russian companies. This study confirms the need to address the problem of aligning two groups of benefits when implementing socially responsible investments: corporate benefits, which characterize the company’s exclusiveness, and social benefits, which characterize its inclusiveness and arise from the use of its financial resources to implement social development projects in its region of operation. The article shows that the meaning of the term “socially responsible investment” is not clearly defined and quantitative studies are limited by the availability of data for assessment. The possibilities of using data on securities issuance and companies’ investments in socially oriented projects are considered. A company’s position in the ESG rating is used as an indirect indicator of socially responsible investments. An approach to assessing a company’s social inclusiveness, which occurs when investments are directed toward developing the region of operation and its social exclusiveness, corresponding to its orientation toward using the financial resources to solve its own social problems, is proposed. Testing of the approach showed the heterogeneity and instability in assessments and determined the direction of further research, i.e. identifying industry and regional characteristics of social inclusiveness/exclusiveness.
Keywords: socially responsible investment, company’s region of operation, investment focus, social inclusion, social exclusion
JEL: G32, Q01
For citation: Sigova M.V. (2025). Socially Responsible Investment and Social Inclusion of Russian Companies. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 59–75 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-59-75.
© Sigova M.V., 2025
E.A. Kopalkina, M.G. Arustamyan, M.M. Minasyan, S.A. Avetisyan, R.Y. Mangasaryan
Current State of the Green Finance Market in Russia and Its Prospects, p. 76-92
Abstract
This article presents a meta-analysis of the Russian green finance market based on open sources and regulatory documents. Since 2018, green instruments have been actively introduced in the Russian financial market. After the imposition of sanctions against Russia and the escalation of geopolitical tensions, the their issuance has significantly decreased. Nevertheless, green financial instruments in Russia continue to function, demonstrating certain adaptive tendencies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current state of the Russian green finance market and to identify the prospects for its further development under the sanctions pressure. The paper summarizes the trends in the issuance of sustainable bonds in 2023–2024, identifies the types of green financial instruments commonly used in Russian practice, and considers potential directions for their diversification. The authors came to the following conclusions: 1) Russia has significant potential for the development of green finance at both the corporate and governmental levels; 2) Due to the increase in the key interest rate and other factors related to the complicated geopolitical situation, the volume of sustainable bond issuance in 2024 reached a record low; 3) Despite this, certain positive trends can be observed — the authorities are planning new projects and initiatives that could revitalize the sustainable bond market, and new green financial instruments continue to emerge; 4) Further activation of the market requires institutionalizing ESG culture among participants and increasing their competencies in green finance. Government authorities should popularize green financial instruments, in particular by reducing the level of transaction costs for issuers when issuing sustainable bonds and developing additional incentives for participants in this market.
Keywords: ESG, green financial instruments, sustainable development, green bonds, green mortgage, blue bonds
JEL: F34, H63, Q01
For citation: Kopalkina E. A., Arustamyan M. G. and al. (2025). Current State of the Green Finance Market in Russia and Its Prospects. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 76–92 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-76-92.
© Kopalkina E.A., Arustamyan M.G., Minasyan M.M., Avetisyan S.A., Mangasaryan R.Y., 2025
P.O. Shchukina, P.A. Lavrinenko, A.G. Mirzoyan, A.A. Galich
The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indices and Dividend Payments of Russian
Stock Market Companies: A Comparative Analysis, p. 93-109
Abstract
The article is devoted to a comparative analysis of various approaches to the construction of corporate governance quality indices and their relationship with dividend payments of companies in the Russian stock market. The main emphasis is placed on the comparison of two approaches to assessing the quality of corporate governance: the first is based on compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia’s Corporate Governance Code, while the second is based on the analysis of objective characteristics of the board of directors. The data used are characteristics of 28 public companies in the Russian stock market for the period from 2010 to 2024. Two methods were used to construct indices: equal weights and the principal component method. As a result of constructing regression models for the period up to 2022, a positive correlation between the quality of corporate governance and dividend payments was revealed. Using the random forest model, it was demonstrated that the highest explanatory power was shown by the index that included both objective characteristics of the board of directors and variables reflecting compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia’s Corporate Governance Code, while the lowest was shown by the index that took into account only the characteristics of the board of directors with equal weights. Nevertheless, a structural shift is observed in 2023 and 2024: the constructed indices have ceased to be significant predictors of dividend payments.
Keywords: corporate governance, index, dividend payments, board of directors
JEL: G34, G35
For citation: Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A. (2025). The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indices and Dividend Payments of Russian Stock Market Companies: A Comparative Analysis. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 93–109 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-93-109.
© Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A., 2025
L.V. Polezharova, D.M. Volkov
Tax Incentives for Scientific and Technological Development: Experience of Foreign Countries and Russia, p. 110-125
Abstract
The priority directions of the state policy of the Russian Federation on the development of investment activities in the country in projects related to the achievement of technological sovereignty and structural adaptation of the economy makes necessary effective use of fiscal incentive instruments for the most knowledge-intensive and promising sectors of the economy. The purpose of the article is to propose conceptual approaches to improving Russia’s tax policy in order to increase the efficiency of R&D. The fiscal instruments and approaches to R&D stimulation successfully used in economically and technologically highly developed foreign countries, which are to be considered in Russia, are highlighted. The indicators of the amount of implied tax subsidies for R&D expenditures, as well as indicators of the country’s gross R&D expenditures in relation to its GDP, were analyzed by countries for the period 2010–2023, and an empirical assessment of the degree and level of actual use of fiscal incentives for R&D was carried out. A theoretical assessment of the reasons for the insufficient degree of their use was also carried out. The ways of improving Russia’s tax policy to increase the effectiveness of R&D tax incentives and demand for them in order to achieve technological sovereignty of the country’s economy are proposed.
Keywords: tax incentives for R&D, tax incentives, R&D expenditure, tax policy in the field of R&D support
JEL: F23, H25, H26
For citation: Polezharova L.V., Volkov D.M. (2025). Tax Incentives for Scientific and Technological Development: Experience of Foreign Countries and Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 110–125 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-110-125.
© Polezharova L.V., Volkov D.M., 2025
I.A. Mayburov
Fiscal Incentives for Innovation in Foreign Countries: An Analytical Review of Positive and Negative Effects, p. 126-142
Abstract
The technological aspect of innovation stimulation is becoming central for Russia, since the introduction of new technologies is one of the most important factors affecting the economy’s ability to remain sustainable in the context of sanctions restrictions and cut-off from the transfer of breakthrough technologies. The task of the state to improve the efficiency of its fiscal policy with regard to stimulating innovation is highly relevant. In the course of the review we tried to answer the following questions: What impact do the main instruments of fiscal policy have on innovation stimulation? Which effects of innovation incentives are positive and which are negative, and what recommendations can increase the efficiency of fiscal policy? The purpose of this article was to identify the effects generated by the main instruments of innovation stimulation (tax incentives and budget subsidies) and to develop recommendations for the formation of effective fiscal policy. For the theoretical review the protocol of multistage selection of high-quality articles was used. The principle of incentive efficiency was substantiated and its decomposition into constituent effects was performed. Twelve incentive effects were identified. In the process of fiscal stimulation, the manifestation of six positive effects is revealed: the signal effect and the effects of knowledge spillover, productivity, high-tech companies, and market failure correction. Four negative effects are identified: crowding out, substitution, small and excessive incentives, and policy uncertainty. Two mixed effects are also identified: imitation and scale. The author's recommendations to strengthen the positive and mixed effects and neutralize the negative effects of innovation incentives are presented.
Keywords: fiscal stimulation, budget subsidies, tax breaks, incentive effects, innovation, R&D, efficiency
JEL: H21, H25
Funding: The article is based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Acknowledgments: The author would like to thank the reviewers for their suggestions and comments, which provided valuable scientific guidance for this study.
For citation: Mayburov I.A. (2025). Fiscal Incentives for Innovation in Foreign Countries: An Analytical Review of Positive and Negative Effects. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 126–142 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-126-142.
© Mayburov I.A., 2025
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