CONTENTS

A.B. Zolotareva, I.A. Sokolov
Budgetary Support for Commercial Organizations in Russia: Experience and Prospects,  p. 8-25
Abstract
Budgetary support for commercial organizations has traditionally been one of the most controversial areas of public spending. The search for reserves to save money is becoming particularly relevant in the context of the budget deficit, which has been almost constantly observed in Russia since 2020. The article is devoted to the analysis of the evolution of domestic legislation on issues of subsidies for commercial organizations (hereinafter also referred to as industrial subsidies) and the practice of its application. The article considers the reasons given in the economic literature for budget support for commercial organizations and the associated risks, as well as the approaches of international organizations to defining the term “industrial subsidies”. One of the main conclusions of the article is that currently neither foreign nor domestic statistics provide an adequate picture of the scale of industrial subsidies. Nevertheless, the article attempts to estimate the minimum amounts of such subsidies from the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation. Another important conclusion is that due to the progress of legislation, the bulk of industrial subsidies in Russia are now distributed competitively according to transparent rules. At the same time, the article makes suggestions on ways to further improve legislation in this area, including: introducing a mechanism for stakeholders to appeal decisions taken by budget managers during the selection process; improving statistics on the volume of industrial subsidies; adjusting the rules for the distribution of subsidies among the selection participants; refusal to provide state guarantees without the right of recourse and abandoning practice of reserving budget allocations to support the economy.
Keywords: subsidies, industrial subsidies, budgetary support for the economy, countervailing measures
JEL: Н23, H25
Funding: The article was prepared as part of the research work on the state assignment of the RANEPA.
For citation: Zolotareva A.B., Sokolov I.A. (2026). Budgetary Support for Commercial Organizations in Russia: Experience and Prospects. Financial Journal, 18 (1), 8–25 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-1-8-25.
© Zolotareva A.B., Sokolov I.A., 2026

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E.N. Timushev
Structure of Federal Interbudgetary Transfers and the Relationship Between Federal and Regional Level Transfers, p. 26-44
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to comprehensively characterize federal intergovernmental transfers and establish the degree of similarity between federal and intraregional transfers. Achieving the goal will help to understand the priorities of government policy and develop ways to increase spending efficiency. The relevance of the study is due to the lack of information on transfers according to criteria such as the functional classification of expenditures, the agency responsible for allocation, and the state program; how much transfers have changed in connection with the new national projects and what is the impact of federal transfers on intraregional ones. Data from the Federal Treasury and the Federal Budget laws for 2024–2026, 2025–2027 and 2026–2028 are used. It is established that there is a steady downward trend in the volume of federal intergovernmental transfers and an increase in the share of subsidies. The most “voluminous” federal subsidies are distributed among departments and areas of public policy. Social spending in the form of transfers (education, healthcare, and social policy) remains an absolute priority. It is found that the role of federal transfers, especially subsidies, in achieving national goals in 2025 increased: the share of such transfers is growing, as is their average size, especially for projects with the highest funding. At the same time, the problem of subsidy consolidation remains acute due to the growing number of transfers. It is revealed that the parameters of intraregional intergovernmental transfers repeat the parameters of federal ones: it is found that the share of transfers in the revenues of regional budgets, which go to the budgets of the regions, and then to the local budgets, is at least 70% (in monetary terms), and the areas of intraregional transfers depend on the structure of federal ones.
Keywords: functional structure, departmental structure, program structure, national project, intraregional transfer, federal budget law
JEL: H77
Funding: The manuscript is based on the results of research carried out within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment for 2026.
For citation: Timushev E.N. (2026). Structure of Federal Interbudgetary Transfers and the Relationship Between Federal and Regional Level Transfers. Financial Journal, 18 (1), 26–44 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-1-26-44.
© Timushev E.N., 2026

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E.A. Zakharchuk, Yu.G. Lavrikova, A.G. Suvorova
Regional Investments as an Economic Mechanism for the Development of Macroregions, p. 45-62
Abstract
The relationship between budget investments and the economic development of territories has been extensively studied by Russian and international scholars; however, there is no unified system for assessing this influence in the literature. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify relationships between regional infrastructure investments and spatial economic development, the results of which can be used to formulate vectors of socio-economic development in Russian regions. The hypothesis is to confirm a direct relationship between the growth/decline of added value and the level of infrastructure investments from the regional budget. The object of the study was the federal districts and regions of the Russian Federation, the information base was Rosstat data on gross regional product at basic prices, data on regional budget expenditures, and capital investment expenditures according to the iMonitoring portal. The article examines the influence of the share of funds allocated to infrastructure from the regional budget on the GRP dynamics of all regions of Russia. A matrix of interdependence between the relative dynamics of GRP and the deviation in the share of capital investments in regional budgets was formed. A correlation model between the studied indicators was built. It was found that the strongest correlation between the indicators is observed when both indicators exceed the Russian average. Based on the obtained results, conclusions are drawn and the main outlines of a financial and economic mechanism for accelerated development of Russia’s macroregions are proposed based on the efficient use of regional capital investments.
Keywords: financial and economic mechanism, macroregion, federal district, interregional interaction, budget investments, capital investments, gross regional product
JEL: P25, H54, G28
Funding: The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under a state assignment from the Financial University.
For citation: Zakharchuk E.A., Lavrikova Yu.G., Suvorova A.G. (2026). Regional Investments as an Economic Mechanism for the Development of Macroregions. Financial Journal, 18 (1), 45–62 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-1-45-62.
© Zakharchuk E.A., Lavrikova Yu.G., Suvorova A.G., 2026

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P.V. Stroev, R.V. Revunov
Tools for Improving the Efficiency of Municipal Finance Management in Single-industry Territories of the Russian Federation, p. 63-75
Abstract
The article considers the main indicators of the municipal debt of the Russian Federation for the period 2021–2025, identifies positive trends associated with the reduction of the internal and external debt of municipalities of the Russian Federation, and the improvement of the debt structure. It has been established that single-industry territories of the Russian Federation are characterized by multidirectional financial processes, expressed both in a decrease and in an increase in the accumulated debt. The calculation and analytical tools for identifying the debt burden of local budgets of single-industry towns are substantiated, it is tested on the materials of the Pikalyovskoye urban settlement of the Boksitogorsk municipal district of the Leningrad region, the Kovdorsky municipal district of the Murmansk region, the municipality “City of Gukovo” of the Rostov region. Proposals are formulated to improve the efficiency of municipal finances of single-industry territories of the Russian Federation, as well as the predicted socioeconomic effect. The results of the study can be used by government bodies of the RF and constituent entities of the RF in the development and implementation of territorial development programs.
Keywords: municipality, single-industry territory, single-industry town, budget, dynamics, debt, government regulation, management, region, economy
JEL: H63, H68
Funding: The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under a state assignment from the Financial University.
For citation: Stroev P.V., Revunov R.V. (2026). Tools for Improving the Efficiency of Municipal Finance Management in Single-industry Territories of the Russian Federation. Financial Journal, 18 (1), 63–75 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-1-63-75.
© Stroev P.V., Revunov R.V., 2026

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V.A. Cherkasova, A.P. Glushenkova
The Impact of Government Support Measures on Investment in R&D and on Company Performance, p. 76-94
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of investment in research and development (R&D) on the efficiency of companies, taking into account the effect of various government support instruments. Among such measures of state support, the following stand out: tax incentives, accelerated depreciation, and the level of legal protection of intellectual property. The analysis uses data from 1,340 public companies in the US, UK, Japan, and China for the period from 2020 to 2023. Panel regression models with clustered standard errors were used as the methodology. Cross-effect models were used to assess the interactions between factors. The results showed that investment in innovation reduces the financial performance of companies. The institutional mechanism for protecting intellectual property mitigates the negative effect of investment in R&D, as it reduces the risk of copying results and increases the likelihood of return on investment. The smoothing effect of institutional legal protection is particularly pronounced in the low-tech sector, where companies are more dependent on external institutional support. The study failed to identify a significant impact of either tax incentives or accelerated depreciation on companies’ financial results in the short term. The conclusions drawn are of practical significance for the state in the development of innovation support policies, as well as for businesses in selecting effective incentive tools to stimulate R&D investment in line with the company’s strategic priorities, and for private investors in assessing the risks and innovation potential of companies in various industries.
Keywords: R&D investments, company efficiency, intellectual property protection, legal protection, tax incentives, high-tech industries
JEL: G38, G31
Note: The materials of the research work of Glushenkova A.P. were used in the preparation of the article. Scientific supervisor — Cherkasova V.A. The article is published in the author’s version.
For citation: Cherkasova V.A., Glushenkova A.P. (2026). The Impact of Government Support Measures on Investment in R&D and on Company Performance. Financial Journal, 18 (1), 76–94 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-1-76-94.
© Cherkasova V.A., Glushenkova A.P., 2026

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A.L. Rozhkovskiy
Exchange-Based and Regulatory Mechanisms for Supporting Corporate Shareholder Value Strategies:
International Experience and Russian Practice, p. 95-112
Abstract
Introduction. Strengthening shareholder value has become a central direction in corporate governance and market attractiveness. In 2025, the Moscow Exchange and the Bank of Russia launched the MOEX Value Building Index (MVBI). This study examines the theoretical and applied foundations of MVBI in the context of international experience and evaluates the Bank of Russia’s regulatory approaches to developing value-creation strategies for public companies. Methods. The research employs normative-comparative analysis of regulations and empirical studies, a descriptive event-study (windows [−5; +20], [−1; +3]), and index normalization using daily data for July 22 – October 31, 2025. The empirical base includes market data and documents of the Moscow Exchange, the Bank of Russia, and comparable stock market indices, including the JPX-Nikkei 400 (Japan), IGC (Brazil), and BIST Corporate Governance Index (Turkey), together with relevant foreign empirical evidence. Results. MVBI follows international practice and, during its initial phase (July–October 2025), showed moderate relative resilience to the market downturn: the normalized change in MVBI ≈ −8.9% versus −10.7% for IMOEX. For the initial cohort of six issuers included in the index at the time of its first formation, the event-study analysis reveals a positive cumulative mean abnormal return (CMAR) over the [+1; +20] window, amounting to approximately +2.6 percentage points. Discussion. The main transmission channels are informational, behavioral-reputational, and cost-ofcapital. The existing framework underrepresents internal KPIs and ESG factors. Enhancements are proposed through integrating ROIC/EVA-based indicators, sector-relevant ESG metrics, and formal alignment between KPIs and executive incentives. Conclusion. MVBI and the Bank of Russia’s methodological guidance have considerable potential to shape corporate practices toward sustainable shareholder-value growth. However, the limited observation window precludes statistical inference; further empirical testing — such as panel regressions on valuation multiples and risk premia — is required to substantiate the observed descriptive effects.
Keywords: shareholder value, stock indices, corporate governance, total shareholder return (TSR), value creation strategy
JEL: G30, G34, M21
Note: The article is published in the author’s version.
For citation: Rozhkovskiy A.L. (2026). Exchange-Based and Regulatory Mechanisms for Supporting Corporate Shareholder Value Strategies: International Experience and Russian Practice. Financial Journal, 18 (1), 95–112 (in Russ). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-1-95-112.
© Rozhkovskiy A.L., 2026

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O.I. Borisov
The Effectiveness of Tax Incentives for Long-Term Savings of Individuals, p. 113-130
Abstract
Encouraging long-term savings among individuals is a complex issue influenced by numerous factors: stock market development, the stability and predictability of economic policy, and the effectiveness of state support systems. Over ten years of operation, Individual Investment Accounts (IIAs) have undergone numerous changes, necessitating careful study of their evolution to identify areas for further improvement. The purpose of this study is to identify factors that influenced the effectiveness of investment tax deductions for IIAs from 2016 to 2024 and to develop proposals for overcoming barriers hindering their development. This objective led to the formulation of the following research tasks: to develop performance indicators (returns) for tax incentives for IIAs and analyze the evolution of IIAs at the national level using these indicators; to develop a regression model for quantitative assessment of factors influencing investment tax deductions across Russian federal subjects; to identify problems hindering individual investment account development and develop strategies to overcome them. The research methods include econometric modeling (panel regression model with fixed effects), ratio analysis, and comparative analysis. The novelty of this study lies in creating a unified toolkit for dynamically assessing the effectiveness of different types of investment tax deductions. The regression model enables quantitative assessment of how the dynamics of financial results from securities transactions, derivatives, repurchase agree- ments, and loss carryforwards to other tax base elements convert into tax deductions claimed by taxpayers. The practical significance of this study lies in the potential application of the proposed tools by the Russian Ministry of Finance to monitor current investment tax deduction results. This would enable accurate identification of which financial market segments drive their increase and to what extent, as well as facilitate stress testing and forecasting of budget revenue shortfalls.
Keywords: individual investment account, investment tax deduction, tax credit effectiveness, personal income tax, long-term retail investments
JEL: G51, H21, H24
For citation: Borisov O.I. (2026). The Effectiveness of Tax Incentives for Long-Term Savings of Individuals. Financial Journal, 18 (1), 113–130 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-1-113-130.
© Borisov O.I., 2026

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L.P. Koroleva
Transformation of Tax Policy in the Context of Iran’s Changing Anti-Sanctions Strategy, p. 131-147
Abstract
The Iranian resistance economy model increasingly relies on tax policy in search of a stable replacement for oil revenues. However, the rising tax burden causes discontent within the country and encourages tax evasion. The 2024–2029 anti-crisis strategy pays great attention to tax reforms. In this regard, the article examines the transformation of the tax policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the context of changing anti-sanction strategies: from resistance to recovery. The purpose of the study is to identify and systematize modern trends in the transformation of the tax policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the context of the evolution of anti-sanction strategies within the paradigm of the resistance economy. A brief description of the changes in the sanctions regime in 1979–2025 is given. An analysis of the indicators of the scale of the economy, economic growth, revenues, expenditures and budget deficit for 2015–2024 showed that the country is successfully resisting the sanctions. The economy demonstrates growth, budget imbalance and public debt within the acceptable values recognized by the international community. However, despite this, it is not possible to achieve the planned level of tax revenues. The article discusses the problems and prospects for increasing tax revenues. It is proposed to consider the evolution of Iran’s tax policy in accordance with the stages of significant changes in the sanctions regime. The trends in the transformation of key taxes are established: corporate and individual income taxes, luxury taxes, VAT. Tax maneuvers are defined that are implemented when Iran’s anti-sanction strategy changes. The general features and characteristics of Iran’s tax system and policy are revealed in the context of the specifics of the regulatory mechanism of the resistance economy and the reorientation of the new anti-sanction strategy to reconstruction and recovery. The results of the study are of practical importance both for improving Iran’s tax policy and for other countries under sanctions in order to develop adaptive fiscal strategies.
Keywords: tax policy, sanctions, resistance economy, anti-sanction strategy, tax revenues, tax burden, tax break
JEL: H20, H30, F51, O23
Funding: The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Note: The article is published in the author’s version.
For citation: Koroleva L.P. (2026). Transformation of Tax Policy in the Context of Iran’s Changing Anti- Sanctions Strategy. Financial Journal, 18 (1), 131–147 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-1-131-147.
© Koroleva L.P., 2026

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CONTENTS

E.A. Gubkova, I.A. Kamolzoda, S.S. Sudakov
Econometric Forecasting of Budget Revenues: The Case of Tajikistan, p. 8-32
Abstract
Forecasting budget revenues is an important task for government agencies involved in budget planning. While preparing official forecasts, simple computations are often used. However, it might lead to inaccurate forecasts. The article is devoted to the development of a tax revenues forecasting system with high predictive power which could be used by government agencies, including those in developing countries. Our system automatically generates a large number of various econometric specifications, estimates them, and combines the forecasts they produce. The system uses time series models with exogenous regressors (causal time series models). The key exogenous variables in these models are various proxies for taxable bases, the model tax rate, as well as proxies for tax proceeds themselves. Before combining models, several of them could be selected based on their quality, i.e., how well they correspond to the presumed theoretical assumptions, how high their predicting power is, and how easy their estimates are to interpret. The system is tested on data for the Republic of Tajikistan for annual proceeds from VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax. Before testing, we analyze official data from open sources to obtain a list of relevant proxies for tax bases, and to develop a method for calculating model tax rates. Then we proceed to forecasting. By comparing the (out-of-sample) system’s forecast with the forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, we show that for 2023, the system gives a lower forecasting error.
Keywords: budget revenues forecasting, econometric modeling of tax revenues, time series models with exogenous regressors, forecast error minimization
JEL: G12, G13, E43
For citation: Gubkova E.A., Kamolzoda I.A. et al. (2025). Econometric Forecasting of Budget Revenues: The Case of Tajikistan. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 8–32 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-8-32.
© Gubkova E.A., Kamolzoda I.A., Sudakov S.S., 2025

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N.I. Yashina, O.I. Kashina, M.V. Kazakov
Integrated Assessment of Budget Sustainability of Russian Regions for the Purpose of Financial Support of Program Expenditures, p. 33-50
Abstract
Effective management of public finances is necessary to achieve such objectives as ensuring nationalsovereignty and improving the living standards of citizens. However, uneven territorial developmentleads to socio-economic disparities. This requires the development of individual trajectories and growth points for regions using adaptive budget policy. The study aims to develop a methodological tool and methods for determining the sustainability of territorial budgets, keeping in mind the financial support of program expenditures and the effective implementation of national strategic goals. The object of the study was the sustainability of Russian regions’ budgets. Statistical and economic-mathematical methods ensured the reliability of the study. It is based on the data of the Ministry of Finance and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, which allows to determine various aspects of budget sustainability and conduct an assessment to ensure the country’s strategic national priorities. An overview of current trends and factors ensuring the sustainability of territorial budgets is presented. A methodological tool for monitoring the sustainability of territorial budgets and clustering regions by levels of revenues and expenditures is proposed. It is tested on the data of budget reporting of Russian regions; the characteristics and classes of budget sustainability are defined. The sectoral, infrastructural and socio-economic regional peculiarities that determine the revenues and expenditures of regional budgets are identified. The scientific and practical significance of the study lies in the development of approaches to multidimensional assessment of budget sustainability and identification of individual national strategies of regional development and “anti-stress” scenarios of budget policy.
Keywords: budget sustainability, budget revenues and expenditures, Russian regions, clustering of territories, development strategy
JEL: H21, H50, Н61
Funding: The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 24-28-01446, https://rscf.ru/project/24-28-01446/.
For citation: Yashina N.I., Kashina O.I., Kazakov M.V. (2025). Integrated Assessment of Budget Sustainability of Russian Regions for the Purpose of Financial Support of Program Expenditures. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 33–50 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-33-50.
© Yashina N.I., Kashina O.I., Kazakov M.V., 2025

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I.V. Anankina, D.G. Bychkov, O.V. Smorodinov, O.A. Feoktistova
Financing Long-term Care in Russia: A Case for an Insurance-based Model, p. 51-63
Abstract
As populations age worldwide, providing effective long-term care for citizens over the age of 65 poses a serious challenge for social policymakers. In OECD countries, the fundamental principles of long-term care policy were established in the 1980s and 1990s, when the socio-economic consequences of population ageing became obvious. These countries developed comprehensive institutional and financial mechanisms for the systematic provision of long-term care services. Prior to this period, care provision in many countries remained fragmented, administered by disparate agencies and financed from uncoordinated sources. Russia initiated its long-term care system in 2018 through pilot programs, in 2023 moved to implement it nationwide. Current analysis identifies substantial deficiencies: inadequate geographic coverage, regional differences in service provision, and concentration of resources on the most complex cases. These constraints are fundamentally rooted in financing limitations. Drawing on forecasts of demand for services, we identify three development scenarios, each differentiated by the scope of citizens coverage. Our analysis suggests that an insurance-based financing model deserves to be revisited as the foundation for Russia’s long-term care system. Such a model would enhance financial sustainability and enable the system to respond effectively to upcoming demographic challenges.
Keywords: long-term care system, disabled people, persons of retirement age, persons in need of care, financing of the long-term care system, insurance model, social services
JEL: H53, I38, J14
For citation: Anankina I.V., Bychkov D.G., Smorodinov O.V., Feoktistova O.A. (2025). Financing Long-term Care in Russia: A Case for an Insurance-based Model. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 51–63 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-51-63.
© Anankina I.V., Bychkov D.G., Smorodinov O.V., Feoktistova O.A., 2025

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A.Ya. Burdyak
Credit Burden and Reproductive Intentions: The Spillover Effect of Housing Programs on Fertility in Russia, p. 64-82
Abstract
The further progress of the National Demography Project requires a deeper analysis of its impact on reproductive behavior. Housing policy measures have a complex impact on various spheres of life. While improved housing conditions can contribute to higher fertility, this has been accompanied by a growth in mortgage lending among Russian families. Consequently, an unforeseen negative effect may emerge, whereby long-term and substantial financial obligations, particularly from mortgages, hinder families from having more children. This paper aims to analyze the extent to which households regard credit or mortgage obligations, lack of home ownership, and limited financial resources as reasons for postponing childbearing. The analysis examines how these obstacles have changed over a decade of active credit market development. The novelty of the research lies in considering debt burden as a factor of fertility rate decline, thereby offering a new framework for evaluating the outcomes of the national project and its associated measures. The analysis is based on microdata from surveys on the reproductive intentions of the population, conducted by Rosstat in 2012 and 2022. It is shown that in the medium-term retrospective, the constraining effect of poor housing conditions has decreased, all other things being equal, while the significance of debt burden as a factor in postponing childbearing has grown. The findings of this study may be of interest both to researchers in the field of demographic and social policy, and to decisionmakers.
Keywords: lending, mortgage, housing, home ownership, family mortgage program, fertility, reproductive intentions
JEL: J13, D14, H53
Funding: The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Note: The article is published in the author’s version.
For citation: Burdyak A.Ya. (2025). Credit Burden and Reproductive Intentions: The Spillover Effect of Housing Programs on Fertility in Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 64–82 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-64-82.
© Burdyak A.Ya., 2025

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D.A. Shatokhin, P.V. Abramov, E.I. Vasileva
Institutionalization of Youth Participatory Budgeting in the Russian Federation, p. 83-98
Abstract
This article considers the institutionalization of youth participatory budgeting in the Russian Federation as an innovative tool for involving young citizens in the process of budgetary decision-making. The authors analyze the mechanisms of integration of youth participatory budgeting into the system of public administration and public finance of the subjects of the Russian Federation and municipal entities. The methodological foundation of the research includes conceptual analysis of terminology, as well as the study of the regulatory and legal framework and the sphere of public finance.
Keywords: youth participatory budgeting, institutionalization, budgetary decision-making, innovations in participatory budgeting
JEL: H72, H76, O33
For citation: Shatokhin D.A., Abramov P.V., Vasileva E.I. (2025). Institutionalization of Youth Participatory Budgeting in the Russian Federation. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 83–98 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-83-98.
© Shatokhin D.A., Abramov P.V., Vasileva E.I., 2025

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N.S. Fedorov
Does Financial Condition of Companies Affect Predictive Accuracy of the DCF-model?, p. 99-112
Abstract
The DCF model is one of the most commonly used models in valuing companies for investment decisions. Nevertheless, estimating the accuracy of this model remains an important research question. This article presents an assessment of the accuracy of DCF model specifications based on analyzing the variance of fair share prices of companies listed on the S&P 500 stock index. The fair prices from the DCF model are calculated using artificial intelligence algorithms. The analysis of the DCF model’s accuracy includes a comparison of fair prices with market and realized prices, which increases the reliability of the empirical analysis. The study shows that the accuracy of fair prices calculated on the basis of the DCF model specifications varies depending on the financial performance of companies.
Keywords: DCF, company valuation, artificial intelligence, fair price
JEL: G32
For citation: Fedorov N.S. (2025). Does Financial Condition of Companies Affect Predictive Accuracy of the DCF-model? Financial Journal, 17 (6), 99–112 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-99-112.
© Fedorov N.S., 2025

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E. Payandi, M.R. Zezaev, L.M. Tsikanova
Multidisciplinary Analysis of Digital Transformation in the Russian Banking Sector: The Cases Studies
of Sberbank, TBank, VTB and RusAg Bank, p. 113-129
Abstract
The digital transformation of the Russian banking sector presents a compelling example of how geopolitical, technological and regulatory forces reshape financial ecosystems under constraints. This article uses an interdisciplinary approach spanning finance, technology, business strategy, regulation, behavioral science and ethics to analyze the digital adaptation strategies of four dominant Russian banks: state-owned Sberbank and VTB, digital TBank and agriculture-focused RusAg Bank. Using a mixed methodological approach combining quantitative performance metrics with qualitative policy analysis, we evaluate how these institutions are coping with a triple challenge: Western sanctions, domestic fintech innovation, and the Central Bank of Russia’s digital ruble initiative. Three questions arise: 1) How have SWIFT exclusion and technology embargoes accelerated the development of sovereign financial technologies while limiting global interoperability. 2) Can state owned banks overcome structural inertia to match the digital agility of the private sector, as seen in Sberbank’s investments in artificial intelligence versus TBank’s SuperApp ecosystem. 3) How do the ethical dilemmas of AI bias in credit scoring to rural financial exclusion manifest differently across different types of banks. Geopolitical isolation has paradoxically spurred innovation in blockchain based payments, but also poses the risk of long-term technological stagnation. These findings carry implications for emerging markets experiencing similar constraints and for policymakers assessing the resilience of the financial ecosystem. The case of Russia shows how sanctions can catalyze the adoption of digital currencies while fragmenting the financial architecture. The article concludes by identifying key trade-offs between financial sovereignty and technological competitiveness in an era of economic nationalism.
Keywords: fintech sanctions, digital ruble, AI in finance, blockchain, financial sovereignty, neobanking, financial inclusion
JEL: G21
Note: The article is published in the author’s version.
For citation: Payandi E., Zezaev M.R., Tsikanova L.M. (2025). Multidisciplinary Analysis of Digital Transformation in the Russian Banking Sector: The Cases Studies of Sberbank, TBank, VTB and RusAg Bank. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 113–129. https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-113-129.
© Payandi E., Zezaev M.R., Tsikanova L.M., 2025

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O.V. Umgaeva, L.N. Ivanova
Digital Transformation of Precious Metals and Stones Turnover, p. 130-140
Abstract
The development and implementation of the state integrated information system encompassing a wide range of participants of the precious metals and stones market, as well as the bodies that regulate it, makes the topic of digital transformation in this research area relevant and widely discussed in the professional community. The article provides an expert assessment of the mechanism of implementation of the state integrated information system in the sphere of control over the turnover of precious stones, precious metals, and precious metal products. The necessity of further improvement of the information system for tracking the circulation of precious products due to the constant change of external and internal factors and the emergence of new problems is shown. The typology of goals, objectives and results outlined in this paper makes it possible to determine the directions of improving the mechanism that ensures transparency, legality of transactions, combating money laundering and terrorism financing, protection of consumer rights, increasing the competitiveness and economic sustainability of enterprises operating in the sector.
Keywords: precious metals, precious stones, information system, labeling, digitalization of turnover
JEL: L51, M15, O38
Funding: The article was prepared as part of the research work under the state assignment of the Financial Research Institute.
For citation: Umgaeva O.V., Ivanova L.N. (2025). Digital Transformation of Precious Metals and Stones Turnover. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 130–140 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-130-140.
© Umgaeva O.V., Ivanova L.N., 2025

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CONTENTS

M.S. Makushkin
Determinants of the Yield on Russian Sovereign Bonds with Floating Coupons, p. 8-25
Abstract
In recent years, amid the tightening of the monetary policy, floating-rate sovereign bonds (OFZ-PK) have come to play a significant role in the Russian bond market. In conditions of high interest rate volatility, they appear to be an attractive instrument for investors because they reduce the interest rate risk. This makes the analysis of OFZ-PK pricing particularly relevant. This paper uses theoretical models and actual OFZ market data to demonstrate the factors influencing the yield of OFZ-PK bonds. First, it systematizes the main types of OFZ-PK bonds available on the market and discusses the specifics of floating coupon calculation. Then, a theoretical model for evaluating OFZ-PK bonds is presented. It is shown that due to the arithmetic averaging of the floating rate inherent in most OFZ-PK, investors in such securities lose interest capitalization and become exposed to additional interest rate volatility risk. Empirical analysis of the OFZ market data revealed that OFZ-PK bonds trade at a premium to OFZ bonds with a fixed income (OFZ-PD). Most of the premium is explained by the absence of interest capitalization and interest rate volatility. It is shown that the new OFZ-PK bonds with coupons based on the RUONIA forward rate are more suitable for modeling and, in theory, should be comparable in terms of yield to OFZ-PD bonds. However, due to the limited availability of interest rate derivatives in the current Russian market, convergence between OFZ-PK and OFZ-PD yields is not always achievable. The findings of this study may be useful to investors in OFZ-PK bonds and may also be taken into account by issuers when designing the terms for placing floating-rate bonds.
Keywords: bonds, interest rate, OFZ-PK, interest rate volatility
JEL: G12, G13, E43
For citation: Makushkin M.S. (2025). Determinants of the Yield on Russian Sovereign Bonds with Floating Coupons. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 8–25 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-8-25.
© Makushkin M.S., 2025

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D.A. Petrova
Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries,  p. 26-39
Abstract
This study analyzes international experience in measuring fiscal policy uncertainty and provides quantitative estimates of government spending uncertainty and tax policy uncertainty for Russia from April 2011 to June 2024. The analysis of empirical studies showed that the main periods of fiscal policy uncertainty in the international context are periods of political instability and elections, fiscal and budget debates, large budget deficits, economic crises, and external shocks such as the Gulf wars and the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. Google Trends searches on “fiscal policy” and time-varying volatility of government expenditures calculated on the basis of stochastic volatility models are used to estimate fiscal policy uncertainty on Russian data. Composite indices of fiscal, budget and tax policies uncertainty based on internet queries on Google were obtained using principal component analysis. Stochastic volatility models were estimated for the fiscal instrument on a quarterly basis. The results of the empirical analysis made identified key periods of fiscal policy uncertainty for Russia during the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2024: the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and the geopolitical risks in 2022.
Keywords: fiscal policy uncertainty, government spending policy uncertainty, search queries, internet data, government spending, stochastic volatility model
JEL: E62, D80, C11
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Petrova D.A. (2025). Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 26–39 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-26-39.
© Petrova D.A., 2025

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L.V. Barabanova, S.V. Arzhenovskiy, L.V. Antosik, K.A. Tumanyants
Does the Shadow Sector Affect the Profitability of Organizations: A Regional Perspective,  p. 40-58
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the lack of works devoted to its topic and based on Russian data. The purpose is to estimate the impact of the shadow economy on the profitability of legally operating companies in Russia, taking into account regional heterogeneity. The information base consisted of annual data from Rosstat and the Federal Treasury for the period from 2014 to 2022 by region. For econometric modeling, the authors used models with composite error on panel data, with spatial effects, as well as a dynamic model with a lagging dependent variable of the profitability level of the regional economy, calculated by Rosstat. The control variables are the autonomy coefficient, the level of regional subsidies, real monetary income and the unemployment rate. The results of econometric modeling empirically prove that an increase in the share of the shadow sector in gross regional product leads to a decrease in the profitability of sales/services and, consequently, to a decrease in the efficiency of the official economic activities of enterprises. The results obtained a) expand the set of factors that can explain fluctuations in the profitability of enterprises in official statistics; b) allow to conclude that the benefits of legal entrepreneurial activity do not yet compensate for the advantages of unofficial business in Russia. In this regard, the state should continue its efforts to change the ratio between them in favor of observed entrepreneurial activity.
Keywords: shadow economy, Russian regions, profitability, panel data, regression analysis
JEL: C23, E26, G32, R15
Acknowledgments: the authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments which helped to improve the text of the article.
Note: the views expressed herein are solely those of the authors. The content and results of this research should not be considered or referred to in any publications as the Bank of Russia’s official position, official policy, or decisions. All errors in this article, if any, are the responsibility of the authors.
For citation: Barabanova L.V., Arzhenovskiy S.V., Antosik L.V., Tumanyants K.A. (2025). Does the Shadow Sector Affect the Profitability of Organisations: A Regional Perspective. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 40–58 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-40-58.
© Barabanova L.V., Arzhenovskiy S.V., Antosik L.V., Tumanyants K.A., 2025

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M.V. Sigova
Socially Responsible Investment and Social Inclusion of Russian Companies,  p. 59-75
Abstract
Social risks, intensifying due to high income differentiation of the population and uneven territorial development of Russia, increase the relevance of research aimed at finding ways to involve companies in solving social problems in their regions of operation, clarifying theoretical provisions and developing methodological tools for social investment. The article proposes, for the first time, an approach to assessing the social inclusiveness/exclusiveness of companies. The purpose of the work is to justify an approach to measuring the social orientation of investments as a trend in the development of Russian companies. This study confirms the need to address the problem of aligning two groups of benefits when implementing socially responsible investments: corporate benefits, which characterize the company’s exclusiveness, and social benefits, which characterize its inclusiveness and arise from the use of its financial resources to implement social development projects in its region of operation. The article shows that the meaning of the term “socially responsible investment” is not clearly defined and quantitative studies are limited by the availability of data for assessment. The possibilities of using data on securities issuance and companies’ investments in socially oriented projects are considered. A company’s position in the ESG rating is used as an indirect indicator of socially responsible investments. An approach to assessing a company’s social inclusiveness, which occurs when investments are directed toward developing the region of operation and its social exclusiveness, corresponding to its orientation toward using the financial resources to solve its own social problems, is proposed. Testing of the approach showed the heterogeneity and instability in assessments and determined the direction of further research, i.e. identifying industry and regional characteristics of social inclusiveness/exclusiveness.
Keywords: socially responsible investment, company’s region of operation, investment focus, social inclusion, social exclusion
JEL: G32, Q01
For citation: Sigova M.V. (2025). Socially Responsible Investment and Social Inclusion of Russian Companies. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 59–75 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-59-75.
© Sigova M.V., 2025

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E.A. Kopalkina, M.G. Arustamyan, M.M. Minasyan, S.A. Avetisyan, R.Y. Mangasaryan
Current State of the Green Finance Market in Russia and Its Prospects, p. 76-92
Abstract
This article presents a meta-analysis of the Russian green finance market based on open sources and regulatory documents. Since 2018, green instruments have been actively introduced in the Russian financial market. After the imposition of sanctions against Russia and the escalation of geopolitical tensions, the their issuance has significantly decreased. Nevertheless, green financial instruments in Russia continue to function, demonstrating certain adaptive tendencies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current state of the Russian green finance market and to identify the prospects for its further development under the sanctions pressure. The paper summarizes the trends in the issuance of sustainable bonds in 2023–2024, identifies the types of green financial instruments commonly used in Russian practice, and considers potential directions for their diversification. The authors came to the following conclusions: 1) Russia has significant potential for the development of green finance at both the corporate and governmental levels; 2) Due to the increase in the key interest rate and other factors related to the complicated geopolitical situation, the volume of sustainable bond issuance in 2024 reached a record low; 3) Despite this, certain positive trends can be observed — the authorities are planning new projects and initiatives that could revitalize the sustainable bond market, and new green financial instruments continue to emerge; 4) Further activation of the market requires institutionalizing ESG culture among participants and increasing their competencies in green finance. Government authorities should popularize green financial instruments, in particular by reducing the level of transaction costs for issuers when issuing sustainable bonds and developing additional incentives for participants in this market.
Keywords: ESG, green financial instruments, sustainable development, green bonds, green mortgage, blue bonds
JEL: F34, H63, Q01
For citation: Kopalkina E. A., Arustamyan M. G. and al. (2025). Current State of the Green Finance Market in Russia and Its Prospects. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 76–92 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-76-92.
© Kopalkina E.A., Arustamyan M.G., Minasyan M.M., Avetisyan S.A., Mangasaryan R.Y., 2025

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P.O. Shchukina, P.A. Lavrinenko, A.G. Mirzoyan, A.A. Galich
The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indices and Dividend Payments of Russian
Stock Market Companies: A Comparative Analysis, p. 93-109
Abstract
The article is devoted to a comparative analysis of various approaches to the construction of corporate governance quality indices and their relationship with dividend payments of companies in the Russian stock market. The main emphasis is placed on the comparison of two approaches to assessing the quality of corporate governance: the first is based on compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia’s Corporate Governance Code, while the second is based on the analysis of objective characteristics of the board of directors. The data used are characteristics of 28 public companies in the Russian stock market for the period from 2010 to 2024. Two methods were used to construct indices: equal weights and the principal component method. As a result of constructing regression models for the period up to 2022, a positive correlation between the quality of corporate governance and dividend payments was revealed. Using the random forest model, it was demonstrated that the highest explanatory power was shown by the index that included both objective characteristics of the board of directors and variables reflecting compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia’s Corporate Governance Code, while the lowest was shown by the index that took into account only the characteristics of the board of directors with equal weights. Nevertheless, a structural shift is observed in 2023 and 2024: the constructed indices have ceased to be significant predictors of dividend payments.
Keywords: corporate governance, index, dividend payments, board of directors
JEL: G34, G35
For citation: Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A. (2025). The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indices and Dividend Payments of Russian Stock Market Companies: A Comparative Analysis. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 93–109 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-93-109.
© Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A., 2025

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L.V. Polezharova, D.M. Volkov
Tax Incentives for Scientific and Technological Development: Experience of Foreign Countries and Russia, p. 110-125
Abstract
The priority directions of the state policy of the Russian Federation on the development of investment activities in the country in projects related to the achievement of technological sovereignty and structural adaptation of the economy makes necessary effective use of fiscal incentive instruments for the most knowledge-intensive and promising sectors of the economy. The purpose of the article is to propose conceptual approaches to improving Russia’s tax policy in order to increase the efficiency of R&D. The fiscal instruments and approaches to R&D stimulation successfully used in economically and technologically highly developed foreign countries, which are to be considered in Russia, are highlighted. The indicators of the amount of implied tax subsidies for R&D expenditures, as well as indicators of the country’s gross R&D expenditures in relation to its GDP, were analyzed by countries for the period 2010–2023, and an empirical assessment of the degree and level of actual use of fiscal incentives for R&D was carried out. A theoretical assessment of the reasons for the insufficient degree of their use was also carried out. The ways of improving Russia’s tax policy to increase the effectiveness of R&D tax incentives and demand for them in order to achieve technological sovereignty of the country’s economy are proposed.
Keywords: tax incentives for R&D, tax incentives, R&D expenditure, tax policy in the field of R&D support
JEL: F23, H25, H26
For citation: Polezharova L.V., Volkov D.M. (2025). Tax Incentives for Scientific and Technological Development: Experience of Foreign Countries and Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 110–125 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-110-125.
© Polezharova L.V., Volkov D.M., 2025

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I.A. Mayburov
Fiscal Incentives for Innovation in Foreign Countries: An Analytical Review of Positive and Negative Effects, p. 126-142
Abstract
The technological aspect of innovation stimulation is becoming central for Russia, since the introduction of new technologies is one of the most important factors affecting the economy’s ability to remain sustainable in the context of sanctions restrictions and cut-off from the transfer of breakthrough technologies. The task of the state to improve the efficiency of its fiscal policy with regard to stimulating innovation is highly relevant. In the course of the review we tried to answer the following questions: What impact do the main instruments of fiscal policy have on innovation stimulation? Which effects of innovation incentives are positive and which are negative, and what recommendations can increase the efficiency of fiscal policy? The purpose of this article was to identify the effects generated by the main instruments of innovation stimulation (tax incentives and budget subsidies) and to develop recommendations for the formation of effective fiscal policy. For the theoretical review the protocol of multistage selection of high-quality articles was used. The principle of incentive efficiency was substantiated and its decomposition into constituent effects was performed. Twelve incentive effects were identified. In the process of fiscal stimulation, the manifestation of six positive effects is revealed: the signal effect and the effects of knowledge spillover, productivity, high-tech companies, and market failure correction. Four negative effects are identified: crowding out, substitution, small and excessive incentives, and policy uncertainty. Two mixed effects are also identified: imitation and scale. The author's recommendations to strengthen the positive and mixed effects and neutralize the negative effects of innovation incentives are presented.
Keywords: fiscal stimulation, budget subsidies, tax breaks, incentive effects, innovation, R&D, efficiency
JEL: H21, H25
Funding: The article is based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Acknowledgments: The author would like to thank the reviewers for their suggestions and comments, which provided valuable scientific guidance for this study.
For citation: Mayburov I.A. (2025). Fiscal Incentives for Innovation in Foreign Countries: An Analytical Review of Positive and Negative Effects. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 126–142 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-126-142.
© Mayburov I.A., 2025

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CONTENTS

I.A. Balyuk, M.A. Balyuk
Russia’s Participation in International Financial Institutions under External Sanctions: Problems and Prospects, p. 8-25
Abstract
The article analyzes Russia's participation in the functioning of international financial institutions (IFIs) under external sanctions. The purpose of this study is to systematize IFIs with Russian membership, identify promising IFIs taking into account the transformation of Russia’s foreign economic relations, and develop recommendations for Russia’s further interaction with various IFIs in the context of tightening external sanctions. The research methodology includes qualitative and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis involves systematizing IFIs with Russian membership according to functional and geographical criteria. Quantitative analysis aims to compare various IFIs with Russian membership implementing fundamental economic and statistical indicators. Based on the results and specifics of their activities, a classification of IFIs was developed and the main characteristics of IFIs were defined. It was found that not all IFIs in which Russia participates are important from the point of view of the new paradigm of our country’s international financial relations. It is advisable for Russia to maintain its membership in most global and regional IFIs, provided that participation does not involve significant financial costs and does not imply the mandatory fulfillment of any requirements that contradict the country’s national interests. One of the key findings of the research is that within traditional IFIs it is extremely important for Russia to intensify cooperation with friendly countries (primarily with BRICS+) in order to strengthen its role and influence in the international arena.
Keywords: Russia, international financial institutions, regime of external sanctions, IMF, World Bank, BRICS+
JEL: F33, F36, G15, G21
For citation: Balyuk I.A., Balyuk M.A. (2025). Russia’s Participation in International Financial Institutions under External Sanctions: Problems and Prospects. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 8–25 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-8-25.
© Balyuk I.A., Balyuk M.A., 2025

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E. V. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, E.D. Dzhaokhadze
Wholesale CBDC Payment Systems and the Potential of the Digital Ruble in Cross-border Settlements, p. 26-43
Abstract
A new payment infrastructure based on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can improve the efficiency of cross-border payments. Currently, the main focus of research in this area is on creating and testing the advantages of multi-CBDC platforms: preliminary results indicate the potential for making international payments faster, less expensive and more accessible. To build an effective cross-border payment infrastructure based on digital currencies, it is important that monetary authorities consider international payments, among other uses, when designing CBDCs. As one of the main elements of digital currency design, the IMF recommends that central banks consider access and communication issues, measures to ensure sufficient liquidity of foreign financial intermediaries, and measures to control possible risks such as the effect of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, capital flight and currency substitution. The economic community expects the digital ruble to be launched into circulation in 2026. It will be mainly used for domestic payments, but the Bank of Russia is also discussing the possibility of using it for cross-border payments. It is therefore important to discuss the conformity of the current design of the digital ruble with existing international standards and recommendations for the design of the CBDC with cross-border use in mind. Despite the fact that the current design of the digital ruble is primarily focused on the Russian financial market, it is relatively easy to reconfigure it for cross-border settlements.
Keywords: central bank digital currency, retail CBDC, wholesale CBDC, digital ruble, central bank, cross-border settlements
JEL: Е40, Е44, E51, F29, F33, F39
Funding: This article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Sinelnikova-Muryleva E.V., Dzhaokhadze E.D. (2025). Wholesale CBDC Payment Systems and the Potential of the Digital Ruble in Cross-border Settlements. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 26–43 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-26-43.
© Sinelnikova-Muryleva E.V., Dzhaokhadze E.D., 2025

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G.V. Morunova, V.A. Fedosov, A.S. Saltykov
Financial Management Information Systems in Russia: Current State and Prospects of Development, p. 44-61
Abstract
Active development of information systems of the budget process in Russia and other countries actualizes the importance of research in this area. Without the use of information systems it is difficult to imagine the work of public authorities on budgeting and budget execution. The purpose of the study is to analyze the functioning of information systems that ensure the process of planning, execution and control of the execution of the federal budget and regional budgets, as well as to substantiate the prospective directions of their development. The object of the study is the financial management information systems in the Russian Federation and its constituent entities. In Russia at the regional level there is no unified model of implementation of information systems of public finance management, so the subjects of the Russian Federation acted in two main directions: development of their own information systems and purchase of standard software products from specialized developers. The study reveals that the following directions of development of financial management information systems in the Russian regions are possible: 1) a decentralized approach on the part of federal authorities with the possibility for Russian regions to use their own software solutions; 2) the creation of all-Russian financial management information systems (or a unified financial management information system) to which Russian regions can be connected. The article pays special attention to the second option, taking into account the need for a balanced and responsible policy in this area in order to preserve the regions’ ability to effectively implement the budget process while taking into account the existing practices.
Keywords: budget process, information systems, financial management information systems, digitalization, regions of the Russian Federation, public finance management
JEL: H10, H70
For citation: Morunova G.V., Fedosov V.A., Saltykov A.S. (2025). Financial Management Information Systems in Russia: Current State and Prospects of Development. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 44–61 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-44-61.
© Morunova G.V., Fedosov V.A., Saltykov A.S., 2025

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M.E. Kosov, A.P. Platonov, S.B. Reshetnikov, T.K. Chernysheva
The Impact of Sanction Restrictions on the Financial and Banking Sectors of the Russian Federation, p. 62-82
The article was retracted on November 14, 2025.

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L.Yu. Lysova, E.L. Prokopjeva
Potential for Long-term Money in Russia's Pension System, p. 83-103
Abstract
The key tasks for the Russian economy are to attract long-term financial resources and improve the standard of living of citizens of retirement age. The article examines mechanisms and tools for addressing these issues, drawing on foreign practices and the domestic potential of the pension system. The research methodology includes a comparative analysis of pension models in different countries and a summary of their characteristics, including sources of funding, age parameters, and income levels. Pension systems in different countries are ranked according to the level of pension payments in GDP and citizens’ participation in their pension provision. The study of the Russian pension system provides a chronology, pension provision indicators, and the profitability of pension reserves. It has been found that the share of non-state pension provision in the structure of citizens’ savings and investment products is insignificant. An assessment was made of the prospects for pension provision instruments — long-term savings programs and pension programs offered by life insurance companies; their advantages, risks, and role in the formation of investment resources were outlined. As a result, general trends were identified in the formation and implementation of pension provision in global practice, taking into account population aging and the increase in the retirement age, more active participation of employers and citizens in the formation of pension savings, and increased flexibility of pension plans considering the individual profile of the consumer. Foreign experience and domestic history of pension system’s formation are of interest for developing strategic directions for its development in Russia and increasing its efficiency. To address this issue, the authors propose the following measures: expanding programs to encourage employers and employees, including self-employed individuals, to participate in non-state pension provision; increasing the flexibility of individual pension plans offered by non-state pension funds; encouraging life insurance companies to participate in pension provision; modernizing and increasing the attractiveness of longterm savings programs and similar savings products for citizens. These measures will contribute to improving the standard of living of citizens in the medium and long term and can serve as a stable source of long-term funds in the economy.
Keywords: pension system, long money, investments, pension models, long-term savings program, life insurance
JEL: G23, H55, I38
For citation: Lysova L.Yu., Prokopjeva E.L. (2025). Potential for Long-term Money in Russia's Pension System. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 83–103 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-83-103.
© Lysova L.Yu., Prokopjeva E.L., 2025

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N.Yu. Kamenskaya, K.V. Shvandar, A.R. Grigoryev
Foreign Experience in Improving Pension Provision for Civil Servants, p. 104-118
Abstract
The relevance of studying the forms, methods and ways of providing pension services to the population of different countries of the world is not weakening. The reason is constant changes occurring in various spheres of national economies, and primarily in the structure of the labor force and population, as well as the state of financial markets. Without monitoring of the ongoing changes and development of measures to control and overcome negative trends (such as the rapid aging of the labor force observed in South Korea), it is difficult to promptly prevent the growing imbalances of the national pension systems. The purpose of this article is to present the results of a study of civil servants pension models in a number of countries with developed pension systems, including the United States, South Korea, South Africa, Canada and the Netherlands. The study revealed that most of the countries reviewed have recently undergone pension system reforms that affected civil servants’ pensions. At the same time, there are more differences than commonalities in the models of organization of pension provision for civil servants in these countries. Thus, there is a different degree of integration of pension provision for public and private sector employees, the shares of civil servants in the total labor force vary greatly, the rates of replacement of labor income by pensions differ almost twice, etc. However, the government in these countries has not only found an adequate balance between the levels of the pension system, but also constantly improves them depending on external and internal conditions, trying to maintain the stability of the national pension system.
Keywords: pension system, civil servant pensions, replacement rate, USA, South Korea, South Africa, Canada, Netherlands
JEL: H55, I38, J26
For citation: Kamenskaya N.Yu., Shvandar K.V. , Grigoryev A.R. (2025). Foreign Experience in Improving Pension Provision for Civil Servants. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 104–118 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-104-118.
© Kamenskaya N.Yu., Shvandar K.V. , Grigoryev A.R., 2025

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I.V. Naumov, N.L. Nikulina, A.A. Bychkova
Modeling Scenarios and Forecasting Risks of Bankruptcy for Metallurgical Enterprises: The Case of the Sverdlovsk Region, p. 119-136
Abstract
The subject of the study is forecasting of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises in the metallurgical industry. Particular attention is paid to assessing the impact of macroeconomic factors, such as currency exchange rate dynamics, investments in fixed capital, the degree of depreciation of fixed assets and asset turnover, on the financial stability of enterprises in the industry. The objective of the work is to develop scenario models for predicting the probability of bankruptcy of metallurgical enterprises in the Sverdlovsk Region using control variables characterizing the influence of economic factors. The authors used regression analysis and autoregressive modeling (ARIMA/ARMA). Inertial, extremely pessimistic and optimistic forecasts were constructed for changes in key factors affecting the stability of enterprises in the metallurgical sector (from the level of depreciation of fixed assets, the volume of investments in fixed capital, the production technologies used, the growth of foreign currency exchange rates, etc.), as well as corresponding forecast scenarios for the probability of their bankruptcy. Forecasting the probability of bankruptcy among metallurgical enterprises in the Sverdlovsk Region shows that large enterprises have moderate financial stability, while small and medium-sized enterprises are exposed to significant risks. The scenario analysis revealed the key role of technological renewal and investment in fixed assets as factors that increase the stability of enterprises. The methodological approach proposed in the paper allows to determine the financial stability of enterprises, assess the probability of their bankruptcy and the impact of the key factors using a regression model, forecast the dynamics of these factors using autoregressive modeling with a moving average, and design forecast scenarios. This approach can be applied in strategic planning and development of state support measures for enterprises aimed at reducing bankruptcy risks and ensuring sustainable development of the industry.
Keywords: probability of bankruptcy, regression analysis, ARIMA modeling, metallurgy, forecast, region
JEL: G33
Funding: The research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 24-28-00704 "Modeling Scenarios and Forecasting Risks of Bankruptcy in Industries in the Sverdlovsk Region" (https://rscf.ru/project/24-28-00704/).
For citation: Naumov I.V., Nikulina N.L., Bychkova A.A. (2025). Modeling Scenarios and Forecasting Risks of Bankruptcy for Metallurgical Enterprises: The Case of the Sverdlovsk Region. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 119–136 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-119-136.
© Naumov I.V., Nikulina N.L., Bychkova A.A., 2025

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