CONTENTS

E.V. Martyanova, A.V. Polbin
Scenario Assessment of Macroeconomic Effects of Progressive Taxation in Russia, p. 8-30
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of alternative options of progressive taxation on Russia’s macroeconomic performance. For quantitative assessments, a neoclassical general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households subject to idiosyncratic income shocks was used. Three groups of scenarios were analyzed, setting a threshold progressive tax scale with thresholds of 30, 50, and 70 thousand rubles, under which state income tax revenues (1) grow, (2) remain unchanged, and (3) decline. The maximum personal income tax rate in the analyzed scenarios was 25%. Steady states and transitions were calculated for the scenarios. According to the quantitative estimates, the first reform leads to a loss of 0.3% to 1.3% of GDP in the long run, depending on the assumed rates and threshold. Despite the increase in lump-sum transfers, aggregate household consumption decreases by 0.5–1.7% in all cases. The second reform leads to a loss of 0.2% to 0.6% of GDP in the long run. The third reform leads to insignificant fluctuations of GDP within 0.1%: GDP increases at the threshold of 30 thousand rubles and decreases at other thresholds. The scale of inequality reduction, as measured by the Gini coefficient, increases with an increase in the top tax rate. However, as the threshold increases, the depth of the Gini index reduction first increases and then decreases. In the short run, there is upward pressure on wages and prices. This is because a decrease in labor supply with unchanged capital in the short run leads to an increase in wage rates (a shift along the labor demand curve), and an increase in wage rates means an increase in marginal costs for firms, leading to higher prices.
Keywords: general equilibrium, heterogeneous agents, fiscal policy, progressive taxation
JEL: E13, E21, E62, H24, H31
For citation: Martyanova E.V., Polbin A.V. (2024). Scenario Assessment of Macroeconomic Effects of Progressive Taxation in Russia. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 8–30 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-8-30.
© Martyanova E.V., Polbin A.V., 2024

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S.V. Arzhenovskiy
Forecasting GDP Dynamics Based on the Bank of Russia’s Enterprise Monitoring Data, p. 31-44
Abstract
The article is devoted to modeling and forecasting of the gross domestic product of Russia based on the data of enterprise survey conducted by the Bank of Russia. The purpose was to study the possibility of improving the efficiency and accuracy of GDP forecasting based on the use of these data. The authors used business climate indicators as well as balances of responses to questions about dynamics of output, demand, and prices. The methodology included regression analysis, as well as a combination of factor and regression analysis, both on aggregate data on all economic sectors and on data on individual economic branches. The forecasting results for two control samples containing actual observations for the eight quarters of 2017–2018 and the five quarters of 2022–2023 suggested that the use of monitoring data improved forecasting accuracy compared to the ARIMA benchmark model. The lowest estimation errors were obtained for approaches combining factor and regression analysis on aggregate data for all economic sectors or the economy as a whole.
Keywords: enterprise monitoring, business climate indicator, factor analysis, regression analysis
JEL: C22, C53, C81, E27
Note: the views expressed herein are solely those of the author. The content and results of this research should not be considered or referred to in any publications as the Bank of Russia’s official position, official policy, or decisions. Any errors in this document are the responsibility of the author.
For citation: Arzhenovskiy S.V. (2024). Forecasting GDP Dynamics Based on the Bank of Russia’s Enterprise Monitoring Data. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 31–44 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-31-44.
© Arzhenovskiy S.V., 2024

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E.E. Grishina
Financial Situation of Large Families and Factors of Their Income Growth, p. 45-60
Abstract
The article analyzes changes in the financial situation of large families in the period from 2018 to 2022 using the data of the Rosstat’s Comprehensive Observation of Living Conditions of the Population for 2018 and 2022. The prevalence of various deprivations among large households and households with children in general is estimated. Changes in household income relative to the poverty line and deprivation level between 2018 and 2022 are calculated. It is shown that despite the improvement in financial status between 2018 and 2022, large families continue to experience significant risks of poverty and deprivation. To assess the factors affecting the incomes of large households, Rosstat data of the Sample Survey of Population Income and Participation in Social Programs (VNDN-2022) were used. Regression analysis shows that employment of adult members of a large family, improvement of their education and qualification level will contribute to the growth of average per capita family income relative to the poverty line. The article outlines proposals for increasing the labor potential of large families, improving their financial situation and reducing poverty.
Keywords: large families, households with three or more children, financial situation, income, support measures
JEL: I31, I38, H75
Funding: the research was funded by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation No. 23-18-00537, https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-18-00537/, at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
For citation: Grishina E.E. (2024). Financial Situation of Large Families and Factors of Their Income Growth. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 45–60 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-45-60.
© Grishina E.E., 2024

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S.S. Sudakov, A.A. Zinchenko
Export Potential Assessment Methodology: The Case of the Republic of Uzbekistan, p. 61-77
Abstract
This paper proposes a universal methodology for assessing export potential of different countries. It takes into account both external and internal supply and demand factors. The methodology is based on the assessment of various trade indices, such as the Balassa index, trade complementarity index and export specialization index. In addition to analyzing the export capabilities of countries, the methodology also focuses on analyzing the countries’ presence in foreign markets (through the geographical structure of imports). The presented methodology is complemented by the estimation of output multipliers (based on Input — Output tables). The calculation of output multipliers takes into account additional induced effects resulting from the growth of household and government incomes, which are partly spent on additional consumption. Complementary analysis of trade indices and output multipliers (including induced effects) allows to identify sectors and products that will most stimulate economic growth by increasing exports. The proposed methodology has been tested on data for the Republic of Uzbekistan in terms of intensive margin of trade. The results of the analysis show that the methodology can be used as a basis for preparing export development programs for individual countries. The methodology could be improved by a deeper analysis of foreign trade barriers, domestic supply factors and extensive trade margins. However, up-to-date information on these improvement factors is not always publicly available.
Keywords: trade indices, input-output multipliers, Input-Output tables, export potential
JEL: C67, D57, F13, F63
For citation: Sudakov S.S., Zinchenko A.A. (2024). Export Potential Assessment Methodology: The Case of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 61–77 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-61-77.
© Sudakov S.S., Zinchenko A.A., 2024

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M.V. Sigova, I.K. Klyuchnikov, O.I. Klyuchnikov
Sustainability and Security of Green Finance from the Multi-agent Games Perspective, p. 78-95
Abstract
Green finance increases the innovation potential of green transformation, helps to address climate change, the environmental crisis and energy security. It is important for green finance to achieve sustainable and balanced development, which will increase the security of both finance itself and many processes in the real economy that depend on it. The purpose of this study was to develop approaches to the ontological design of green finance and multi-agent modeling of the behavior of green finance actors, considering their sustainable and safe interaction. To achieve this goal it was necessary to clarify the conceptual apparatus of green finance and related areas; to characterize the "work" of the multi-agent model in the analysis of the behavior of the main green finance actors and to trace the prospects for their impact on the stability and security of the financial market; and finally, based on ontology construction and agent-based approach to nonlinear interactions in the green financial process, to determine the mechanism of building chains of the main market participants. The methodological basis of the study consists of general scientific research methods (analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, logic), as well as evolutionary dynamics and agent-based approach to the analysis of financial markets. A comparative analysis of the works of various authors and the interpretation of theoretical provisions in related areas of knowledge about finance, as well as the analysis of their sustainable and safe development were carried out. As a result of the study, the authors identified the main approaches to the design of financial ontology and multi-agent modeling of financial interactions in the direction of determining their sustainable and safe development. The proposed model establishes that the criterion of the effectiveness of the applied strategy is the satisfaction with the state of financial impact on the economy, environment, and social sphere. Maintaining this state, along with saving the amount of resources used, is done through optimization. The chosen approach corresponds to the concept of sustainable development and safe functioning of the systems under consideration.
Keywords: green finance, ontology, multi-agent modeling, sustainability, security
JEL: F01, B41, F30, F37, Q50, Q56
For citation: Sigova M.V., Klyuchnikov I.K., Klyuchnikov O.I. (2024). Sustainability and Security of Green Finance from the Multi-agent Games Perspective. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 78–95 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-78-95.
© Sigova M.V., Klyuchnikov I.K., Klyuchnikov O.I., 2024

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O.V. Khmyz
Sustainable Investments and Divestments by Global Institutional Investors, p. 96-108
Abstract
The article analyzes the investment activity of sustainable institutional investors after the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. The relevance of the study is conditioned, firstly, by the leading positions of institutional investors in the global financial market and in the system of international finance; secondly, by the special role of mutual funds and ETFs in the global market of sustainable finance; thirdly, by the noticeable dynamics of investments by these market participants in recent years, which increasingly turns into divestments. The purpose of the study is to identify current trends in sustainable investment by global institutional investors and formulate their further actions in the short term. To do this, it is necessary to solve the following tasks: to clarify, taking into account the latest statistical data, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other force majeure factors on the size and dynamics of the flow of funds of sustainable institutional investors in the leading countries of the world, and to assess the impact on investment prospects of current political and financial factors. In the course of the study, a significant amount of scientific research was analyzed, which served as a basis for identifying the institutional investors’ approaches to sustainable finance. It is concluded that the prospects for global sustainable investing are favorable due to the continued stimulation of environmental change at the supranational level, both in developed and leading developing countries. The financial success of sustainable investment will also contribute to this.
Keywords: institutional investors, sustainable finance, ESG, green bonds, sustainable bonds, investment funds
JEL: G23, G20, F21, N20
For citation: Khmyz O.V. (2024). Sustainable Investments and Divestments by Global Institutional Investors. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 96–108 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-96-108.
© Khmyz O.V., 2024

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I.P. Dovbiy, N.S. Dovbiy
Sustainable Finance in Addressing the Challenges of Energy Transition and Climate Change Mitigation, p. 109-124
Abstract
This study reveals the special role of finance related to the climate and energy transition, the effectiveness of which is evaluated by ESG criteria. The authors define the concept of "sustainable finance" as economic relations within the framework of purposeful formation of capital flows in accordance with ESG principles from public, corporate and private sources and their channeling to achieve the goals of sustainable development, energy transition and adaptation to climate change. It is established that the sustainable development policy implies a comprehensive achievement of goals and solving problems related to the energy transition and overcoming the consequences of climate change, without considering one without the other. The article reveals a connection between the strengthening of climate-related risk management and acceleration of energy consumption, which led to an increase in investor demand for reliable, comprehensive and comparable information. It also reveals significant contradictions between the global players of the global economy regarding the timing and forms of ensuring technological sovereignty and the special role of sustainable finance in achieving it, as well as the importance for Russia to follow global trends in the climate and energy transition. As a special segment of sustainable finance, the field of venture climate finance is developing quite rapidly, but this process is hampered by the lack of adequate information among venture investors about ESG in hightech startup companies and the specter of "black swans" in the financial markets.
Keywords: energy transition, sustainable finance, climate agenda, decarbonization, technological sovereignty, ESG, venture financing
JEL: Q01, Q42, Q56
For citation: Dovbiy I.P., Dovbiy N.S. (2024). Sustainable Finance in Addressing the Challenges of Energy Transition and Climate Change Mitigation. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 109–124 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-109-124.
© Dovbiy I.P., Dovbiy N.S., 2024

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L.N. Ivanova, O.V. Umgaeva
Digital Marking of Jewelry: Leveling the Risks of Implementation, p. 125-135
Abstract
The possibility of leveling the risks of introducing digital labeling of jewelry is of significant interest at the current stage of functioning of the state integrated information system in the field of turnover of precious metals, gemstones and articles made of them (GIIS DMDK). In accordance with the current legislation, digital transformation is actually already registered at all enterprises in this field, starting from mining and refining and ending with the sale of jewelry. The accumulated experience and the scheme of implementing digital accounting should be considered when improving the system of turnover of precious stones and metals within the EAEU countries that have signed a cooperation agreement, therefore it is logical to analyze the problems in this area. From the authors’ point of view, the planned tasks of the next stages of implementation of the GIIS DMDK system require clarification, in particular, labeling and building new business models on its basis. The article offers an analysis and justification of various options for solving these problems of expediency of practical application, reducing the risks of rejection of labeling by participants in the precious metals and gemstones turnover and achieving the expected effect.
Keywords: digital marking, GIIS DMDK, digital code, jewelry, branding, testing, turnover of precious stones and metals
JEL: D51, G28, G32, O29, L15
Funding: the article was prepared as part of the research work under the state assignment of the Financial Research Institute.
For citation: Ivanova L.N., Umgaeva O.V. (2024). Digital Marking of Jewelry: Leveling the Risks of Implementation. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 125–135 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-125-135.
© Ivanova L.N., Umgaeva O.V., 2024

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CONTENTS

A.L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina, S.R. Borisova
Non-resource Revenues to the Consolidated Budget: Analysis by Types of Economic Activity, p. 8-26
Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of non-resource revenues of the consolidated budget of Russia by types of economic activity. The purpose of this study was to identify which sectors are the most sensitive to shocks form the fiscal point of view, and to answer the questions: how long it takes for the revenues of different sectors recover from “local lows” and how the sectoral structure of budget revenues affects the volatility of payments. In accordance with the set objectives, we examined the dynamics of consolidated budget revenues in real terms for the period 2008–2022 as a whole and by sector. In addition, a sectoral analysis was provided for CIT. The calculations were based on the data of the Federal Tax Service prepared by excluding payments on natural rent. The analysis showed that revenue fluctuations are largely determined by the dynamics of payments from the extractive sector (especially oil production), and an increase in the sector’s share is likely to increase the overall volatility of revenues. In fiscal terms, the processing sector is the most sustainable for total revenues but provides a source of volatility in CIT dynamics. Revenues from financial activities show the fastest recovery from the crises. Trade and finance have a stabilizing effect on both total revenues and CIT dynamics. The results of the study can be used at the stage of budget planning.
Keywords: taxes, budget revenues, CIT, budget risks, budget revenues by sector
JEL: E64, H24, H25, H72
For citation: Osmolovskaya-Suslina A.L., Borisova S.R. (2023). Non-resource Revenues to the Consolidated Budget: Analysis by Types of Economic Activity. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 8–26 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-8-26
© Osmolovskaya-Suslina A.L., Borisova S.R., 2023

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P.E. Zhukov
Capital Flight from Russia and Possible Sources of Financing Budget Expenditures, p. 27-42
Abstract
The article considers the problems of capital flight from Russia in current conditions and the related problems of financing budget expenditures. The difference between capital export and capital flight, which occurs in conditions of extremely high risks or unfavorable investment climate, is substantiated. The balance of payments of Russia in 2022 is analyzed, and it is substantiated that in the current situation capital flows are largely capital flight from political and economic risks. The author estimates the size of capital flight from Russia in 2022 (approximately $232 billion), and concludes that the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings in modern conditions can be replaced by more flexible control measures. Further, the paper analyzes a set of complex problems of financing the federal budget expenditures of Russia in the current conditions. Three possible mechanisms of financing the budget deficit (or additional expenditures) are considered: at the expense of new public debt, at the expense of the National Welfare Fund and sale of state assets, as well as at the expense of new emergency taxes. It is concluded that attraction of new sources for government borrowing is practically impossible without a significant increase in interest expenditures. At the end of the paper, for the recovery of the Russian economy, there is a proposal to introduce a new flexible tax on the export of capital, which can create incentives for investment in the Russian economy and solve the problems of financing federal budget expenditures in modern conditions.
Keywords: foreign direct investment, capital flight, capital export, budget revenues, budget deficit, emergency tax
JEL: F21, G11, H50, H61, H68
For citation: Zhukov P.E. (2023). Capital Flight from Russia and Possible Sources of Financing Budget Expenditures. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 27–42 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-27-42
© Zhukov P.E., 2023

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A. Patalaha, M.A. Shchepeleva
Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability, p. 43-60
Abstract
This research focuses on the determinants of banking crises. Despite all efforts to create systems of leading indicators, banking crises still occur, leading to negative consequences not only in the financial but also in the real sector of the economy. Our objective is to figure out how the characteristics of past banking crises, in particular the amount of liquidity support provided by the government, are related to the probability of subsequent banking crises. To accomplish this task, we use a classification tree methodology which we apply to a sample of 56 countries over the period 2000–2021. In addition to the characteristics of past crisis episodes, we add to the list of potential predictors of banking crises indicators related to the depth, structure and efficiency of the banking sector; institutional and macroeconomic indicators; and the index of macroprudential policy. To test the robustness of our results, we perform variable selection through Bayesian model averaging. Our results suggest that liquidity support during the past banking crisis is important for future crises. We demonstrate that excessive government support aimed at stabilizing the system during a crisis may affect future banking sector stability mainly by increasing the level of moral hazard in the financial system.
Keywords: classification tree, banking crisis, Bayesian model averaging, moral hazard
JEL: G01, G17, G28
Funding: The research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 23-18-00756).
For citation: Patalaha A., Shchepeleva M.A. (2023). Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 43–60 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-43-60
© Patalaha A., Shchepeleva M.A., 2023

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A.A. Tsyganov, I.A. Bystronovskaya
Possible Organizational and Economic Schemes of Index Insurance in Russian Agriculture, p. 61-75
Abstract
Agricultural risks, given climate change and the crisis of globalization, are increasingly considered as national security risks. In global practice, insurance has proven to be one of the most successful and sustainable ways to manage agricultural risks. In the Russian Federation, agricultural insurance is also state-supported, which emphasizes the importance of containment of agricultural sector hazards. However, the level of insurance penetration in Russian agriculture is insufficient. Indices in agricultural insurance, i.e. insurance in which insurance payments are made not on the basis of the assessment of damage to the insurance object, but on the basis of the behavior of a special index, are used in many countries around the world. The main idea of index insurance is that there is no need to establish the fact and calculate the amount of loss, which makes it especially demanded for those activities in the real sector of the economy where speed, transparency and simplicity of insurance payments are important, as well as the need to attract additional well-trained employees to carry out the insurance process and claims settlement. Reduced workload due to the absence of the need to calculate the amount of loss reduces the time required to process claims. The procedures of claim settlement in index insurance can be called the most simplified for the client and the least costly for the insurance company, but the advantages and positive features of index insurance do not end there. The authors have investigated and systematized the possibilities of index insurance, for which they also considered the successful experience of a country with similar socio-cultural codes, Mexico, in the field of agricultural index insurance. The article also suggests ways to overcome the difficulties of index insurance implementation in the Russian insurance realities. The positive features of the index insurance identified by the authors can make it a promising alternative to classical (traditional) insurance, including for the further development of agricultural insurance with state support.
Keywords: insurance theory, index insurance, agricultural insurance, insurance legislation
JEL: G22
Funding: the article is based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
For citation: Tsyganov A.A., Bystronovskaya I.A. (2023). Possible Organizational and Economic Schemes of Index Insurance in Russian Agriculture. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 61–75 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-61-75
© Tsyganov A.A., Bystronovskaya I.A., 2023

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P.K. Koval, A.V. Polbin
Estimation of Heterogenous Consumption and Income Parameters, p. 76-92
Abstract
In modern economic literature, much attention is paid to estimates of the structural parameters of consumer choice and the process of income generation. Such estimations play an important role in determining the optimal insurance system, optimal monetary and fiscal policies, as well as in assessing the welfare of the population. In this paper, we estimate a set of parameters that determine the dynamics of household income and consumption in Russia. These parameters are heterogeneous at the household level; the paper uses the estimation method proposed in [Alan et al., 2018]. To estimate the parameters we use RLMS panel data for the period 2005–2019. The results indicate the presence of significant co-dependent heterogeneity of the parameters determining the dynamics of income and consumption. These results reflect the specifics of the consumer behavior of households in Russia. In particular, significant heterogeneity in the sensitivity of consumption to income shocks indicates a large variability of consumption insurance mechanisms available to households. In addition, there is significant heterogeneity in the dispersion of income shocks, which is critical in the context of the discussion of heterogeneous insurance instruments against income shocks (e.g., access to financial assets), as households with higher variation in unanticipated income change value these instruments more. This study is the first to estimate the full distribution of heterogeneous parameters of consumption and income dynamics using Russian data. Estimates of heterogeneous parameters are important for constructing theoretical models of consumer choice and analyzing optimal social policy. In particular, high values of the level of parameter heterogeneity indicate that standard models with a representative agent are not suitable for optimal policy choices.
Keywords: heterogenous parameters, consumption, income, households, RLMS, structural model
JEL: D10, D12, E21
For citation: Koval P.K., Polbin A.V. (2023). Estimation of Heterogenous Consumption and Income Parameters. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 76–92 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-76-92
© Koval P.K., Polbin A.V., 2023

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E.I. Brichka, Yu.S. Evlakhova
Three Levels of Digital Inequality of the Population in the Financial Sphere, p. 93-109
Abstract
The article examines the problems of digital inequality in the financial sphere at three levels. The purpose of the study is to characterize and assess (quantitatively or qualitatively) the digital inequality of the Russian population in the financial sphere (at each of the three levels). The achievement of the research goal is ensured by using the index method, methods of graphical analysis, as well as comparative analysis of empirical data. The result of the work is the developed index of the first-level digital inequality in the financial sphere, which allows to give an aggregate assessment. The calculated values of the index confirm the conclusions about the steady decline in the Russian economy of the first-level digital inequality in the financial sphere. As for the second-level digital inequality, the following results were obtained: In 2021, a significant part of the Russian population possessed such basic skills as sending files via e-mail and messengers, working with a text editor and copying or moving files; the share of the population possessing advanced skills increased, while the availability of basic and standard digital skills remained virtually unchanged; the level of digital literacy does not affect the population’s activity in ordering financial services online. A list of digital financial skills has been formulated, which can be assessed in further analysis of the second-level digital inequality. The theoretical description of the third-level digital inequality led us to conclude that to better understand this level, an expanded analysis is required, as well as progress in overcoming the digital gaps of the first and second levels.
Keywords: digital inequality, digital technologies, digital skills, digital competencies, digital inequality index, financial market
JEL: G20, O33
Funding: the article is based on the results of the research performed under the Russian Science Foundation grant № 23-28-00590, https://rscf.ru/project/23-28-00590/
For citation: Brichka E.I., Evlakhova Yu.S. (2023). Three Levels of Digital Inequality of the Population in the Financial Sphere. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 93–109 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-93-109
© Brichka E.I., Evlakhova Yu.S., 2023

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L.N. Ivanova, E.N. Badmaeva
Cross-border Approach to Economic Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan in the Sphere
of Turnover of Precious Metals and Stones, p. 110-122
Abstract
In the conditions of expanding interaction between friendly countries, the cross-border approach to economic cooperation in strategically important areas is becoming increasingly important. The methodological basis of this study was the dialectical method of cognition, which allows analyzing and synthesizing economic phenomena, dissecting them into separate elements. The methods of logical, economic and situational analysis were also used. The authors give a bibliographic review of economic cooperation between Russia and the Republic of Kazakhstan using a cross-border approach to the analysis of the precious metals and stones market; show the role of the Republic of Kazakhstan at historical stages in the formation of integration processes in the Eurasian space; characterize the structure of the market of precious metals and stones and products made of them. The market of precious metals, gemstones and products made of them is a promising direction of Kazakhstan's economic development. The Republic of Kazakhstan is successfully improving the state regulation of the precious metals and gemstones industry, taking into account global trends and best practices in this area. Cross-border cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia will contribute to their further economic development.
Keywords: Russia, Kazakhstan, cross-border approach, precious metals, gemstones
JEL: D51, G28, G32, O29, L15
Funding: the article was prepared as part of the research work under the state assignment of the Financial Research Institute.
For citation: Ivanova L.N., Вadmaeva E.N. (2023). Cross-border Approach to Economic Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan in the Sphere of Turnover of Precious Metals and Stones. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 110–122 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-110-122
© Ivanova L.N., Вadmaeva E.N., 2023

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V.V. Olkhovik, R.S. Afanasev, E. Juchnevicius, T.N. Malofeeva
Fiscal Mechanism for Stimulating Domestic Production in Some BRICS and European Countries, p. 123-135
Abstract
The issue of stimulating domestic production is multifaceted and has a long history of study. At present, it is particularly relevant due to the introduction of restrictive measures, including the termination of supplies of a number of foreign goods to the Russian Federation. As one of the possible measures to increase the production of goods by Russian companies and entrepreneurs, the authors consider a new incentive mechanism of redistribution of value added tax (VAT) received by the federal budget, which implies the direction of the amounts of social grants taking into account the economic activity of the region associated with the production of value added on its territory. The purpose of the article is to justify a new methodology that includes a financial mechanism for redistributing the amounts of VAT in the form of grants to producers, aimed at creating effective budgetary incentives for regions to organize their own production of goods. For this purpose, the experience of VAT distribution in two BRICS countries — Brazil and China — is considered. In addition, the article summarizes effective measures of Germany, France, Greece, Austria and Norway to optimize calculation and payment of VAT, which resulted in economic growth. Discussion. One notable approach proposed by the authors to create a new incentive mechanism for redistribution of VAT revenues to the federal budget. This mechanism involves the allocation of social grants depending on the economic activity of the regions, particularly related to the production of valueadded goods on their territory. This approach represents a departure from traditional fiscal policies aimed at aligning incentives with local production. Results. This research represents a significant contribution to the ongoing debate on stimulating domestic production. By advocating a new mechanism of VAT redistribution and drawing on international experiences, the study seeks to address the challenges posed by restrictive measures and promote economic growth in the Russian Federation.
Keywords: commodity production, stimulating, value added tax, social grants, economic activity, redistribution, budgetary incentives, BRICS countries, VAT distribution, economic growth
JEL: H30, H87
For citation: Olkhovik V.V., Afanasev R.S., Juchnevicius E., Malofeeva T.N. (2023). Fiscal Mechanism for Stimulating Domestic Production in Some BRICS and European Countries. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 123–135. https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-123-135
© Olkhovik V.V., Afanasev R.S., Juchnevicius E., Malofeeva T.N., 2023

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CONTENTS

A.I. Votinov, V.A. Gribova, S.S. Lazaryan
Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Public Investments: The Case of the DSGE Model, p. 8-26
Abstract
This paper attempts to assess the impact of public investment within the framework of a simple DSGE model calibrated on Russian data. To this end, three versions of the DSGE model were constructed. The first model, referred to as the baseline model, assumes efficient allocation of public investment. The second model considers inefficient use of public investment when it is not fully converted into capital. The third model examines crowding out of private investment by public investment. The primary focus of this paper is to analyze the effects of public investment shock on various components of the economy. Two distinct effects are identified with regard to investment. The first effect relates to a short-term increase in demand due to an increase in investment activity. The size of this effect is strongly influenced by the crowding-out phenomenon, in particular by the ability of the economy to absorb investment effectively. The second effect is a reduction in marginal costs in the medium to long run, which facilitates economic growth even at the expense of increased private investment. This effect depends primarily on the efficiency of transformation of public investment into capital. The study also analyzes the sensitivity of the results to parameterization, including the degree of economic openness. The findings of the study explain the transmission mechanism of public investment, including the factors affecting its efficiency. It is important to note that the main objective of the study was to investigate the transmission mechanism and its determinants, while the next stage of the research is expected to include a comprehensive assessment of the parameters using Russian data.
Keywords: public investment, DSGE models, crowding-out effect, investment efficiency, depreciation rate, income ratio, rate of substitution
JEL: E22, E62, H54, R53
Funding: The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 21-18-00482, https://rscf.ru/project/21-18-00482/
For citation: Votinov A.I., Gribova V.A., Lazaryan S.S. (2023). Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Public Investments: The Case of the DSGE Model. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 8–26 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-8-26
© Votinov A.I., Gribova V.A., Lazaryan S.S., 2023

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L.V. Sannikova
Legal Framework for Central Bank Digital Currencies and the Digital Ruble, p. 27-44
Abstract
The introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) requires an appropriate legal framework. Its absence creates serious legal and reputational risks that may undermine citizens' confidence in the new digital form of national currency. The purpose of this article is to explore the approaches to the formation of the legal basis for the functioning of CBDCs based on the analysis of foreign experience and Russian legislation. The article highlights the legal features of CBDCs that allow to distinguish them from other state digital financial instruments. The author proposes a legal taxonomy of retail CBDCs, revealing the legal consequences of the choice of CBDC design. Special attention is paid to the problem of legal balance between user privacy and security. The article investigates legal approaches to the regulation of CBDC of foreign countries, primarily China. The author analyses the legislation on the digital ruble, which showed the insufficiency of legal guarantees to protect the rights of citizens — users of the digital ruble platform, which may negatively affect public confidence in the digital ruble.
Keywords: central bank digital currency (CBDC), legal taxonomy, retail CBDCs, programmable CBDCs, digital ruble, digital yuan
JEL: G21, G28
Funding: This research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research via grant 21-511-93004 КАОН “Rule of Law in the Digital Economy in China and Russia: Current State, Challenges and
Future Development”.
For citation: Sannikova L.V. (2023). Legal Framework for Central Bank Digital Currencies and the Digital Ruble. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 27–44 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-27-44
© Sannikova L.V., 2023

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A.I. Lukashov
Improvement of Treasury Control Tools as a Measure to Increase the Efficiency of Budget Expenditures, p. 45-60
Abstract
The article is devoted to the issues related to the need to improve the efficiency of budget funds. The author proposes to supplement the "classical" criteria of budget funds usage efficiency with the criterion of legality. The study summarizes and analyzes the results of control activities of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation and the Federal Treasury. In view of the significant number of violations detected by the state financial control bodies, the author concludes that it is necessary to improve the treasury control tools, such as treasury service, treasury support, budget monitoring and preliminary control in the field of procurement. The author also considers approaches to improving the operational efficiency of the use of budgetary funds. The empirical basis of the study are the results of the federal budget execution for the past five years, as well as indicators of the federal budget receivables. Special attention is paid to the prospects for the development of centralized budget accounting.
Keywords: state financial control, treasury control, treasury service, treasury support, centralized budget accounting
JEL: G32, H12, M15, M38, O32
For citation: Lukashov A.I. (2023). Improvement of Treasury Control Tools as a Measure to Increase the Efficiency of Budget Expenditures. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 45–60 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-45-60
© Lukashov A.I., 2023

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E.N. Timushev, V.A. Yagovkina
Reserve Funds in Russian Regions: Factors of Formation and Efficiency Assessment, p. 61-78
Abstract
The article considers the main characteristics of the Russian Federation subjects’ reserve funds analyzes the factors of their formation and assesses their effectiveness through the lens of the regions’ countercyclical fiscal policy. In theory, reserve funds serve not only as a source of additional budgetary funds, but also as an instrument of anti-crisis policy and financial stability. In practice, the reserve funds of Russian regions are believed not to fulfill the designated tasks, although the number of relevant studies is extremely limited. The latter determines the relevance of this study. The authors establish that the regional reserve fund of the subject as a public-law entity was established only in about half of the Russian regions and in many respects their creation coincided with the recovery growth after the crisis of 2009–2010. The theoretical provisions are also consistent with the fact that on average the reserve fund is owned by the entities whose economy is more dependent on the mining industry, has greater fiscal capacity, is less subsidized and has a lower level of debt. At the same time, greater fiscal capacity or debt sustainability can hardly be considered as factors in the creation of reserve funds. A number of models are constructed to assess the effectiveness of reserve funds of Russian regions from the point of view of countercyclical fiscal policy. It is concluded that reserve funds in their current form are ineffective for smoothing regional expenditures and maintaining overall fiscal stability. Nevertheless, many questions remain in this topic, including alternative model specifications and evaluation techniques. Based on the results obtained, the directions for further research are formulated.
Keywords: countercyclical fiscal policy, financial stability, intergovernmental fiscal relations, regional legislation, interaction variable, dummy variable, reserve funds
JEL: H61, H72, H77
Funding: the manuscript is based on the results of research carried out within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment.
For citation: Timushev E.N., Yagovkina V.A. (2023). Reserve Funds in Russian Regions: Factors of Formation and Efficiency Assessment. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 61–78 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-61-78
© Timushev E.N., Yagovkina V.A., 2023

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V.V. Klimanov, A.A. Mikhaylova, Z.I. Egorsheva
Moscow Budget Policy: Opportunities for Responding to the Challenges of the New Reality, p. 79-93
Abstract
At present in Russia there is a need to improve the quality of budget policy as the most important element of state policy, and Moscow is undoubtedly the leading region for its implementation. The purpose of the study is to determine whether Moscow's budget policy can respond to the challenges of the new reality through the instrument of state programs. To achieve this goal, the article considers the retrospective of Moscow budget execution in terms of expenditures, paying special attention to the program structure of expenditures. With the help of statistical and analytical methods the authors analyze the dynamics of budget expenditures distribution within the framework of Moscow state programs, and examine the approved and executed budgets and the percentage of deviation of the executed expenditures from the initially approved ones by subprograms. It is concluded that the Moscow budget is quite adaptive. The dynamics of budget expenditures shows that the distribution of budget allocations has been adjusted due to the need of the megapolis to respond to various challenges. If earlier such challenges included the need to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, now it is a tense foreign policy situation and sanctions from unfriendly states.
Keywords: Moscow budget policy, megapolis finances, financial sustainability, state programs and projects
JEL: H74, H77, Q58, R51
Funding: The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation. Project No. 22-28-20117 «Megapolis Budget Policy as a Tool for Responding to the Challenges of the New Reality». https://rscf.ru/project/22-28-20117/
For citation: Klimanov V.V., Mikhaylova A.A., Egorsheva Z.I. (2023). Moscow Budget Policy: Opportunities for Responding to the Challenges of the New Reality. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 79–93 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-79-93
© Klimanov V.V., Mikhaylova A.A., Egorsheva Z.I., 2023

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A.I. Potapov
Assessing the Margin Requirements Impact on the Russian Futures Market Liquidity, p. 94-116
Abstract
The implementation of a margin system in derivatives markets has a positive effect on market liquidity and market pricing efficiency. At the same time, portfolio diversification and hedging are not fully taken into account when assessing margin requirements. Therefore, in order to comply with regulatory requirements, the exchange sets excessive margins. IAs Charoula Daskalaki and George Skiadopoulos have shown, overestimation of margin requirements reduces the positive effect of the existence of a margin system. However, quantification of this observation has not been presented in studies before. This paper quantifies the dependence of market liquidity on the level of margin. The study is conducted on data from futures contracts for 19 underlying assets traded on the Moscow Exchange between 2014 and 2021, using an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous factors (ARMAX). The stability of the obtained results is determined by comparing different model specifications with different sliding window sizes. The analysis not only confirmed the fact that margin requirements, which protect the exchange's capital, reduce the positive effect of implementing a margin system but also allowed to evaluate it quantitatively: a 1% increase in margin requirements in relative terms reduces trading volume from 2.5 to 7% and the volume of open positions from 0.2 to 0.9%, depending on the type of position and trader. The impact on trading volume is on average stable over time, and there are local trends and tipping points for the volume of open positions.
Keywords: derivatives, time series analysis, liquidity, margin requirements
JEL: C32, C51, G12
For citation: Potapov A.I. (2023). Assessing the Margin Requirements Impact on the Russian Futures Market Liquidity. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 94–116 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-94-116
© Potapov A.I., 2023

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V.D. Smirnov
Evolution of the Bank-firm Relationship, p. 117-132
Abstract
Increasing competition in all sectors of the economy, caused by the accelerated introduction of new technological advances in manufacturing processes, the creation of innovative products and the use of new business models, generates increased uncertainty in the development prospects of each market organization. The natural reaction of many commercial structures is to deepen specialization and competencies in their core activities. The purpose of the study is to identify the circumstances affecting interaction between a company and a bank in the new conditions. The article for the first time examines these relationships from the point of view of the need for each party to improve its own business, which objectively requires closer cooperation between them. Based on the results of the study, the author concludes that strengthening collaboration between a firm and a bank in the field of credit and payment operations and management of related risks is based on pursuit of each party’s own goals and increases the value of each of them. Forms of cooperation between a company and a bank can be different, but the most effective for each organization seems to be a partnership form of relationship, allowing the participants of cooperation to receive the greatest benefits and, at the same time, to strengthen and reinforce their positions in the core activities of each party.
Keywords: specialization, competition, cooperation, mutual benefit, efficiency, firm, bank
JEL: G21, G32
For citation: Smirnov V.D. (2023). Evolution of the Bank-firm Relationship. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 117–132 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-117-132
© Smirnov V.D., 2023

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M.E. Kosov, E.V. Golubtsova, E.S. Novikova
The Role of State Financial Regulation in Solving Key Problems of Russian Regions on the Example of the Far Eastern Federal District, p. 133-149
Abstract
The relevance of this research is defined by the importance of the Far Eastern Federal District in the context of reorientation of Russia’s logistics and infrastructure from West to East. The aim of the paper is to test the hypothesis about the positive impact of the used measures of state financial regulation on the development of the Far Eastern Federal District in order to solve its key problems. The authors faced the task to analyze and develop essential measures of state financial regulation at the regional level. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of those measures taking into account the changing importance of the region in Russia’s trade turnover. The practical relevance consists in the possibility of using the results in the development of public financial policy in the region. In addition, the article considers key problems of the region, the solution of which will have a positive impact on the country’s economic growth and can be achieved through the government financial measures suggested by the authors. Such measures include increasing the capacity of the Far East sea ports, which means the simultaneous development of the Russian logistical infrastructure, primarily railway infrastructure, to organize uninterrupted delivery of goods to the ports of the region; changing the structure of the trade turnover with a shift towards the export of high-tech products; solving the demographic problems and increasing the scientific and technological potential of the Russian Far East. The results of this study can be used to analyze other Russian regions in order to increase the economic potential of the country as a whole.
Keywords: import substitution, state regulation, regional economics, tax incentives, preferential lending, subsidies, investments
JEL: G18
For citation: Kosov M.E., Golubtsova E.V., Novikova E.S. (2023). The Role of State Financial Regulation in Solving Key Problems of Russian Regions on the Example of the Far Eastern Federal District. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 133–149 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-133-149
© Kosov M.E., Golubtsova E.V., Novikova E.S., 2023

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CONTENTS

A.B. Zolotareva
Problems and Methods of Improving the Legal Regulation of Public Investment in Russia, p. 8-26
Abstract
The article describes the main conclusions of the research work aimed at identifying key problems of and ways to improve the legal regulation of public investment in Russia. This work was based on the analysis of legislation and practice of its application. The analysis leads to the conclusion that there are significant shortcomings in the current legislation on planning and implementation of public investment, which hinder their efficiency. Among such shortcomings, the author highlights contradictions on the issue of bodies authorized to make key investment decisions; duplication of the investment component of state programs and national (federal) projects; approval of budget allocations for projects that are not ready for implementation; unclear grounds for raising the price of construction contracts, as well as for centralizing the functions of planning and implementation of sectoral investments, reduction of requirements for justification of investment projects. To mitigate these shortcomings, the author suggests to ensure systematic planning of large investments as part of national and federal projects, excluding these costs from the state programs; as a general rule, to abandon the practice of approving decisions on the implementation of budget investments by individual acts of the government and financing projects without the necessary documentation; to organize a comparative assessment of the efficiency of centralized and sectoral customers in investment management according to legally defined criteria; to return to the use of some previously applied criteria for the efficiency of investment projects.
Keywords: public investments, budget investments, federal targeted investment program (FTIP), planning of public investments, implementation of public investments
JEL: H11, H50, H54, H60, H68, O20
For citation: Zolotareva A.B. (2023). Problems and Methods of Improving the Legal Regulation of Public Investment in Russia. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 8–26 (In Russ.). 
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-8-26.
© Zolotareva A.B., 2023

 

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O.K. Yastrebova, O.I. Karasev
Financing Instruments and Outcomes for R&D Public Funding, p. 27-42
Abstract
The key actual task of improving the tools of scientific and technological policy is the focus of R&D on obtaining socially significant results, including the creation of in-demand innovative products and technologies. Its solution requires appropriate improvement of the system of financial support for science. The authors of the article consider the existence of a clearly structured relationship between the national goals set for the scientific field as a whole and specific tools for their achievement as a necessary condition for effective management of this sphere. The paper analyzes the key instruments of R&D financing from the point of view of approaches to ensuring their effectiveness. The necessity of linking the volume of funding with the achieved results is shown, and specific proposals to solving this problem are made, including those based on the assessment of the technology readiness level (TRL).
Keywords: S&T policy, R&D financing instruments, performance indicators, technology readiness level, state program
JEL: O31, O32, O38
For citation: Yastrebova O.K., Karasev O.I. (2023). Financing Instruments and Outcomes for R&D Public Funding. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 27–42 (In Russ.). 
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-27-42.
© Yastrebova O.K., Karasev O.I., 2023

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B.I. Alekhin
Monetary Poverty and Education in Russia, p. 43-62
Abstract
Russian economic literature on poverty abounds with empirically unsupported assertions about the positive relationship between education and living standards. The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence of this relationship using panel data for 82 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2021. We applied a dynamic OLS estimator to estimate a panel cointegrating equation and found strong negative and statistically significant dependence of indicators of absolute and relative monetary poverty on the highest level of education of the regional working-age population. We also performed the Dumitrescu-Hurlin pairwise causality test, which shows that higher education does not homogeneously cause more absolute monetary poverty, but more absolute monetary poverty does homogeneously cause better education as people try to avoid poverty by raising their educational level. The results of these econometric procedures suggest that the purpose of the study has been achieved.
Keywords: monetary poverty, education, cointegration, region, Russia
JEL: I24, C23
For citation: Alekhin B.I. (2023). Monetary Poverty and Education in Russia. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 43–62 (In Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-43-62.
© Alekhin B.I., 2023

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A.I. Denisova, D.A. Sozaeva, K.V. Gonchar, G.A. Aleksandrov
Improving the Methodology for Assessing the Economic Efficiency of Public E-procurement of Medicines, p. 63-81
Abstract
The study raises the issue of evaluating the effectiveness of public procurement, especially procurement of medicines. This topic is relevant, since a significant part of state funding is directed specifically to the healthcare system. In addition, the quality of organization of procurement activities affects the work of hospitals and polyclinics. In this regard, the improvement of the methodology for assessing the economic efficiency of public procurement, particularly procurement of medicines, is critically important. The paper presents the results of statistical analysis showing the need to develop a more comprehensive methodology that takes into account the volume of failed purchases in the context of efficiency assessment. The issue of "repeated" purchases was studied separately, since information about them would allow drawing conclusions about the existing patterns in tenders and the reasons for recognizing a purchase as failed. The methodological novelty is associated with the description of the approach to the formation of a sample for research and the algorithm for identifying "repeated" procurement procedures. All calculations are based on real data on procurement under the Federal Law No. 44-FZ for 2021–2022. The data was aggregated from the Unified Information System for Procurement. A statistical analysis of the scale of failed and repeated purchases in the context of regions, medicines and pharmacotherapeutic groups has been conducted. Based on the analysis, approximate estimates of hidden costs of the state budget related to re-organizing and re-conducting of trade procedures are given. The results of the work can be used for further scientific research in the field of public procurement efficiency, as well as to improve public policy in the field of procurement and provision of medicines.
Keywords: state and municipal procurement, effectiveness of public procurement, procurement of medicines, repeated purchases, failed purchases, big data
JEL: C55, C81, C40, H57, I18
Acknowledgments: The study was carried out at the State University of Management in cooperation with Roseltorg.Lab (JSC "Unified Electronic Trading Platform"). The authors are grateful to JSC "United Electronic Trading Platform" for the supportof the company's employees research activities.
For citation: Denisova A.I., Sozaeva D.A., Gonchar K.V., Aleksandrov G.A. (2023). Improving the Methodology for Assessing the Economic Efficiency of Public
E-procurement of Medicines. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 63–81 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-63-81.
© Denisova A.I., Sozaeva D.A., Gonchar K.V., Aleksandrov G.A., 2023

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T.I. Vinogradova
Green Budgeting Tools and Practice, p. 82-97
Abstract
Russia is following the course of implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals and shaping its climate strategy. In March 2023, Russia approved the National Action Plan for the second phase of adaptation to climate change for the period until 2025. The public budget is the main tool for achieving the political goals of the government, therefore, in order to implement the public policy in the field of environmental protection and counteraction to climate change, green budgeting is being introduced. The purpose of this article is to actualize the ideas of green budgeting, systematize such budgeting tools within the framework of the general concept of green budgeting, taking into account foreign experience of their use. The author uses general scientific methods, in particular methods of analysis and synthesis of relevant scientific literature, legal information and publications of international organizations. The following conclusions are made: The public budget system is able to minimize those economic activities that are adverse for the environment by creating the possibility of tracking, analysis, evaluation and adjustment of budget expenditures using the tools of green budgeting. The latter does not require restructuring of the public finance management system; the prerequisite for its practical use is the presence of environmental care among the state national goals.
Keywords: green budget, green budgeting, green public finance management, climate budgeting, green budget tagging, environmental impact assessment, audit of green expenditures
JEL: F53, F64, H61, H72, Q01, Q51
For citation: Vinogradova T.I. (2023). Green Budgeting Tools and Practice. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 82–97 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-82-97.
© Vinogradova T.I., 2023

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Zh.A. Mingaleva, I.A. Nikitina, I.A. Kruglova
On the Feasibility of Using the Environmental Performance Index to Assess
the Level of Socio-ecological Development of Russian Regions, p. 98-111 
Abstract
Introduction: Investment decisions by many private and institutional investors are made taking into account the information (current estimates, forecasts, trends) contained in various country ratings regularly published by leading international financial and regulatory organizations (IMF, IBRD, UN), which allows investors to assess the level of risk and return on investment in various projects in these countries. The article evaluates the Environmental Performance Index (EPI), the most common in international studies, from the point of view of its use as a comprehensive tool for comparative analysis and an indicator for assessing the success of achieving the goals of sustainable social and environmental development of Russian regions. Purpose: Analysis of the feasibility of using EPI and its individual elements as part of an integrated approach to assessing the effectiveness of social and environmental development of Russia and its regions. Results: The authors reviewed the transformation of the methodology for calculating EPI over the entire period of its compilation; analyzed the dynamics of indicators, directions and blocks that make up the Index; assessed their adequacy to the geographical and sectoral features of social and environmental development. Conclusions: An extremely high level of politicization of the Index and inconsistency of its calculation methodology with the real conditions of Russia’s economic development were revealed. The inexpediency of its use in the present conditions to assess the social and environmental development of Russian regions, to build a rating of their sustainable development, to develop criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of environmental programs and projects, including in the field of green and environmental investments, was proved.
Keywords: socio-ecological development, comparative analysis, Environmental Performance Index, assessment indicators
JEL: Q54, Q56, Q58, Q52
Acknowledgments: the article was prepared as part of the implementation of the Strategic Academic Leadership Program “Priority 2030” by the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA).
For citation: Mingaleva Zh.A., Nikitina I.A., Kruglova I.A. (2023). On the Feasibility of Using the Environmental Performance Index to Assess the Level of Socio-ecological Development of Russian Regions. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 98–111 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-98-111.
© Mingaleva Zh.A., Nikitina I.A., Kruglova I.A., 2023

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I.V. Kiviko, N.I. Malis
The Tax Policy of the Republic of Crimea: Reducing Subsidization of the Region, p. 112-122
Abstract
Currently, the Republic of Crimea is a subsidized region, and for objective reasons the level of subsidization will not be significantly reduced in the near future, as a result of which the implementation of the indicators reflected in the Law of the Republic of Crimea "On the Strategy of Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Crimea until 2030" does not seem realistic. At the same time, the tax policy of the republic is developing measures to increase its own budget revenues, and they are already giving their positive results. Undoubtedly, the expansion of the revenue side of the regional budget should be based on increasing the manageability of the tax potential, which is formed taking into account the indicators of the dynamics of economic development. The unique geographical, resource and climatic conditions of the Republic of Crimea allow for a widely diversified economic development policy and, accordingly, regional tax policy. Based on the peculiarities of the territorial location and a large number of health resort and recreational complexes, it is possible to form a program of short-term measures to increase the tax base under special tax regimes, personal income tax and other taxes due to the cascade effect of business activity of individuals and SMEs. Full or partial solution of the problem of seasonality of active use of tourist infrastructure will increase the tax potential and, in turn, reduce subsidized dependence on the federal center. The management of tax potential should certainly be based on the analysis of the level of tax burden due to the fact that excessive tax burden can lead to the effect of reverse increase in tax payments.
Keywords: Republic of Crimea, budget, tax incentives, gross regional product, profit, small business, tax potential
JEL: G28, D63, D78
For citation: Kiviko I.V., Malis N.I. (2023). The Tax Policy of the Republic of Crimea: Reducing Subsidization of the Region. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 112–122 (In Russ.). 
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-112-122.
© Kiviko I.V., Malis N.I., 2023

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A.Yu. Mikhaylov, V. Khare, S. E. Uhunamure, Ts. Chang, D.I. Stepanova
Bitcoin Price Short-term Forecast Using Twitter Sentiment Analysis, p. 123-137
Abstract
The goal of the article is to develop an innovative forecasting approach based on the Random Forest and fuzzy logic models for predicting crypto-asset prices (IFSs, PFSs, q-ROFSs). The baseline forecast horizon is 90 days (additional horizons are 30, 60, 120 and 150 days), which allows to estimate the significance of the chosen features and the impact of time on the forecast accuracy. The paper proposes an optimal data selection approach for the Random Forest and fuzzy logic models to improve the prediction of the daily closing price of Bitcoin, using online social network activity, trading parameters, technical indicators, and data on other cryptocurrencies. This paper utilizes a tree-based machine learning prediction and a fuzzy logic model for Bitcoin. The article attempts to prove that automated Bitcoin forecasting using machine learning algorithms is very effective for the cryptocurrency market. Nevertheless, the latter is characterized by high volatility, significant rate hikes of the most liquid cryptocurrencies (mainly Bitcoin). Therefore, investments in cryptocurrencies, especially long-term ones, involve significant risks. This defines the paper’s significance for investors and regulators. As shown by simulation studies of data selection approaches generalizing the accuracy performance of the Random Forest and fuzzy logic models to real preferences of forecasting, even under significant noise measurements, the proposed selection approach leads to fast convergence of estimates. The accuracy of the model’s results exceed 85.21 on a 90-day time horizon.
Keywords: cryptocurrency, investor behavior, Bitcoin, inflation, Twitter sentiment
JEL: D53, E31, E44, F21
For citation: Mikhaylov A.Yu. et al. (2023). Bitcoin Price Short-term Forecast Using Twitter Sentiment Analysis. Financial Journal, 15 (4), pp. 123–137.
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-123-137.
© Mikhaylov A.Yu. et al., 2023

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