CONTENTS
E.A. Gubkova, I.A. Kamolzoda, S.S. Sudakov
Econometric Forecasting of Budget Revenues: The Case of Tajikistan, p. 8-32
Abstract
Forecasting budget revenues is an important task for government agencies involved in budget planning. While preparing official forecasts, simple computations are often used. However, it might lead to inaccurate forecasts. The article is devoted to the development of a tax revenues forecasting system with high predictive power which could be used by government agencies, including those in developing countries. Our system automatically generates a large number of various econometric specifications, estimates them, and combines the forecasts they produce. The system uses time series models with exogenous regressors (causal time series models). The key exogenous variables in these models are various proxies for taxable bases, the model tax rate, as well as proxies for tax proceeds themselves. Before combining models, several of them could be selected based on their quality, i.e., how well they correspond to the presumed theoretical assumptions, how high their predicting power is, and how easy their estimates are to interpret. The system is tested on data for the Republic of Tajikistan for annual proceeds from VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax. Before testing, we analyze official data from open sources to obtain a list of relevant proxies for tax bases, and to develop a method for calculating model tax rates. Then we proceed to forecasting. By comparing the (out-of-sample) system’s forecast with the forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, we show that for 2023, the system gives a lower forecasting error.
Keywords: budget revenues forecasting, econometric modeling of tax revenues, time series models with exogenous regressors, forecast error minimization
JEL: G12, G13, E43
For citation: Gubkova E.A., Kamolzoda I.A. et al. (2025). Econometric Forecasting of Budget Revenues: The Case of Tajikistan. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 8–32 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-8-32.
© Gubkova E.A., Kamolzoda I.A., Sudakov S.S., 2025
N.I. Yashina, O.I. Kashina, M.V. Kazakov
Integrated Assessment of Budget Sustainability of Russian Regions for the Purpose of Financial Support of Program Expenditures, p. 33-50
Abstract
Effective management of public finances is necessary to achieve such objectives as ensuring nationalsovereignty and improving the living standards of citizens. However, uneven territorial developmentleads to socio-economic disparities. This requires the development of individual trajectories and growth points for regions using adaptive budget policy. The study aims to develop a methodological tool and methods for determining the sustainability of territorial budgets, keeping in mind the financial support of program expenditures and the effective implementation of national strategic goals. The object of the study was the sustainability of Russian regions’ budgets. Statistical and economic-mathematical methods ensured the reliability of the study. It is based on the data of the Ministry of Finance and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, which allows to determine various aspects of budget sustainability and conduct an assessment to ensure the country’s strategic national priorities. An overview of current trends and factors ensuring the sustainability of territorial budgets is presented. A methodological tool for monitoring the sustainability of territorial budgets and clustering regions by levels of revenues and expenditures is proposed. It is tested on the data of budget reporting of Russian regions; the characteristics and classes of budget sustainability are defined. The sectoral, infrastructural and socio-economic regional peculiarities that determine the revenues and expenditures of regional budgets are identified. The scientific and practical significance of the study lies in the development of approaches to multidimensional assessment of budget sustainability and identification of individual national strategies of regional development and “anti-stress” scenarios of budget policy.
Keywords: budget sustainability, budget revenues and expenditures, Russian regions, clustering of territories, development strategy
JEL: H21, H50, Н61
Funding: The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 24-28-01446, https://rscf.ru/project/24-28-01446/.
For citation: Yashina N.I., Kashina O.I., Kazakov M.V. (2025). Integrated Assessment of Budget Sustainability of Russian Regions for the Purpose of Financial Support of Program Expenditures. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 33–50 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-33-50.
© Yashina N.I., Kashina O.I., Kazakov M.V., 2025
I.V. Anankina, D.G. Bychkov, O.V. Smorodinov, O.A. Feoktistova
Financing Long-term Care in Russia: A Case for an Insurance-based Model, p. 51-63
Abstract
As populations age worldwide, providing effective long-term care for citizens over the age of 65 poses a serious challenge for social policymakers. In OECD countries, the fundamental principles of long-term care policy were established in the 1980s and 1990s, when the socio-economic consequences of population ageing became obvious. These countries developed comprehensive institutional and financial mechanisms for the systematic provision of long-term care services. Prior to this period, care provision in many countries remained fragmented, administered by disparate agencies and financed from uncoordinated sources. Russia initiated its long-term care system in 2018 through pilot programs, in 2023 moved to implement it nationwide. Current analysis identifies substantial deficiencies: inadequate geographic coverage, regional differences in service provision, and concentration of resources on the most complex cases. These constraints are fundamentally rooted in financing limitations. Drawing on forecasts of demand for services, we identify three development scenarios, each differentiated by the scope of citizens coverage. Our analysis suggests that an insurance-based financing model deserves to be revisited as the foundation for Russia’s long-term care system. Such a model would enhance financial sustainability and enable the system to respond effectively to upcoming demographic challenges.
Keywords: long-term care system, disabled people, persons of retirement age, persons in need of care, financing of the long-term care system, insurance model, social services
JEL: H53, I38, J14
For citation: Anankina I.V., Bychkov D.G., Smorodinov O.V., Feoktistova O.A. (2025). Financing Long-term Care in Russia: A Case for an Insurance-based Model. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 51–63 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-51-63.
© Anankina I.V., Bychkov D.G., Smorodinov O.V., Feoktistova O.A., 2025
A.Ya. Burdyak
Credit Burden and Reproductive Intentions: The Spillover Effect of Housing Programs on Fertility in Russia, p. 64-82
Abstract
The further progress of the National Demography Project requires a deeper analysis of its impact on reproductive behavior. Housing policy measures have a complex impact on various spheres of life. While improved housing conditions can contribute to higher fertility, this has been accompanied by a growth in mortgage lending among Russian families. Consequently, an unforeseen negative effect may emerge, whereby long-term and substantial financial obligations, particularly from mortgages, hinder families from having more children. This paper aims to analyze the extent to which households regard credit or mortgage obligations, lack of home ownership, and limited financial resources as reasons for postponing childbearing. The analysis examines how these obstacles have changed over a decade of active credit market development. The novelty of the research lies in considering debt burden as a factor of fertility rate decline, thereby offering a new framework for evaluating the outcomes of the national project and its associated measures. The analysis is based on microdata from surveys on the reproductive intentions of the population, conducted by Rosstat in 2012 and 2022. It is shown that in the medium-term retrospective, the constraining effect of poor housing conditions has decreased, all other things being equal, while the significance of debt burden as a factor in postponing childbearing has grown. The findings of this study may be of interest both to researchers in the field of demographic and social policy, and to decisionmakers.
Keywords: lending, mortgage, housing, home ownership, family mortgage program, fertility, reproductive intentions
JEL: J13, D14, H53
Funding: The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Note: The article is published in the author’s version.
For citation: Burdyak A.Ya. (2025). Credit Burden and Reproductive Intentions: The Spillover Effect of Housing Programs on Fertility in Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 64–82 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-64-82.
© Burdyak A.Ya., 2025
D.A. Shatokhin, P.V. Abramov, E.I. Vasileva
Institutionalization of Youth Participatory Budgeting in the Russian Federation, p. 83-98
Abstract
This article considers the institutionalization of youth participatory budgeting in the Russian Federation as an innovative tool for involving young citizens in the process of budgetary decision-making. The authors analyze the mechanisms of integration of youth participatory budgeting into the system of public administration and public finance of the subjects of the Russian Federation and municipal entities. The methodological foundation of the research includes conceptual analysis of terminology, as well as the study of the regulatory and legal framework and the sphere of public finance.
Keywords: youth participatory budgeting, institutionalization, budgetary decision-making, innovations in participatory budgeting
JEL: H72, H76, O33
For citation: Shatokhin D.A., Abramov P.V., Vasileva E.I. (2025). Institutionalization of Youth Participatory Budgeting in the Russian Federation. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 83–98 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-83-98.
© Shatokhin D.A., Abramov P.V., Vasileva E.I., 2025
N.S. Fedorov
Does Financial Condition of Companies Affect Predictive Accuracy of the DCF-model?, p. 99-112
Abstract
The DCF model is one of the most commonly used models in valuing companies for investment decisions. Nevertheless, estimating the accuracy of this model remains an important research question. This article presents an assessment of the accuracy of DCF model specifications based on analyzing the variance of fair share prices of companies listed on the S&P 500 stock index. The fair prices from the DCF model are calculated using artificial intelligence algorithms. The analysis of the DCF model’s accuracy includes a comparison of fair prices with market and realized prices, which increases the reliability of the empirical analysis. The study shows that the accuracy of fair prices calculated on the basis of the DCF model specifications varies depending on the financial performance of companies.
Keywords: DCF, company valuation, artificial intelligence, fair price
JEL: G32
For citation: Fedorov N.S. (2025). Does Financial Condition of Companies Affect Predictive Accuracy of the DCF-model? Financial Journal, 17 (6), 99–112 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-99-112.
© Fedorov N.S., 2025
E. Payandi, M.R. Zezaev, L.M. Tsikanova
Multidisciplinary Analysis of Digital Transformation in the Russian Banking Sector: The Cases Studies
of Sberbank, TBank, VTB and RusAg Bank, p. 113-129
Abstract
The digital transformation of the Russian banking sector presents a compelling example of how geopolitical, technological and regulatory forces reshape financial ecosystems under constraints. This article uses an interdisciplinary approach spanning finance, technology, business strategy, regulation, behavioral science and ethics to analyze the digital adaptation strategies of four dominant Russian banks: state-owned Sberbank and VTB, digital TBank and agriculture-focused RusAg Bank. Using a mixed methodological approach combining quantitative performance metrics with qualitative policy analysis, we evaluate how these institutions are coping with a triple challenge: Western sanctions, domestic fintech innovation, and the Central Bank of Russia’s digital ruble initiative. Three questions arise: 1) How have SWIFT exclusion and technology embargoes accelerated the development of sovereign financial technologies while limiting global interoperability. 2) Can state owned banks overcome structural inertia to match the digital agility of the private sector, as seen in Sberbank’s investments in artificial intelligence versus TBank’s SuperApp ecosystem. 3) How do the ethical dilemmas of AI bias in credit scoring to rural financial exclusion manifest differently across different types of banks. Geopolitical isolation has paradoxically spurred innovation in blockchain based payments, but also poses the risk of long-term technological stagnation. These findings carry implications for emerging markets experiencing similar constraints and for policymakers assessing the resilience of the financial ecosystem. The case of Russia shows how sanctions can catalyze the adoption of digital currencies while fragmenting the financial architecture. The article concludes by identifying key trade-offs between financial sovereignty and technological competitiveness in an era of economic nationalism.
Keywords: fintech sanctions, digital ruble, AI in finance, blockchain, financial sovereignty, neobanking, financial inclusion
JEL: G21
Note: The article is published in the author’s version.
For citation: Payandi E., Zezaev M.R., Tsikanova L.M. (2025). Multidisciplinary Analysis of Digital Transformation in the Russian Banking Sector: The Cases Studies of Sberbank, TBank, VTB and RusAg Bank. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 113–129. https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-113-129.
© Payandi E., Zezaev M.R., Tsikanova L.M., 2025
O.V. Umgaeva, L.N. Ivanova
Digital Transformation of Precious Metals and Stones Turnover, p. 130-140
Abstract
The development and implementation of the state integrated information system encompassing a wide range of participants of the precious metals and stones market, as well as the bodies that regulate it, makes the topic of digital transformation in this research area relevant and widely discussed in the professional community. The article provides an expert assessment of the mechanism of implementation of the state integrated information system in the sphere of control over the turnover of precious stones, precious metals, and precious metal products. The necessity of further improvement of the information system for tracking the circulation of precious products due to the constant change of external and internal factors and the emergence of new problems is shown. The typology of goals, objectives and results outlined in this paper makes it possible to determine the directions of improving the mechanism that ensures transparency, legality of transactions, combating money laundering and terrorism financing, protection of consumer rights, increasing the competitiveness and economic sustainability of enterprises operating in the sector.
Keywords: precious metals, precious stones, information system, labeling, digitalization of turnover
JEL: L51, M15, O38
Funding: The article was prepared as part of the research work under the state assignment of the Financial Research Institute.
For citation: Umgaeva O.V., Ivanova L.N. (2025). Digital Transformation of Precious Metals and Stones Turnover. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 130–140 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-130-140.
© Umgaeva O.V., Ivanova L.N., 2025
Eng
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